Buying anywhere between $4-$5 will be a steal in 2 years. Once the majority of the mines start shutting down because gold is trading below the cost of production there will be a massive shortage of physical and we will see a huge short squeeze within 6-12 months from now. The U.S. government is $17 trillion in debt and the federal reserve has to continue QE to artificially supress interest rates or the U.S. government collapses and so does the housing market. Japan and the EU are all pumping easy money and artificially lowering interest rates.. The bullion banks have almost all turned long on gold for the first time in over a decade and they will reverse this downtrend soon! People are way too bearish considering all of the positive indicators for Gold!!
People like you have been saying that gold would reach $2000 and you couldn't have been more wrong. Your scenario could play out; it's about 500 to 1 but it could happen.
The truth is the neither you or anyone else knows what's going to happen with gold. All I know for sure is that this company missed earnings BIGTIME, and that's all I need to know. It's a SELL.
always_24601 your a typical losing trader. Why would you sell a stock that is at an all time low and trading at half of its book value? Is your philosophy buy high, sell low? lol I actually called the high at $1900 and I will call the low at $1049 on September 11th, 2013. :) And I will call that gold will close the year close to $1600 after one of the largest short squeezes in history occur at the end of September/Beginning of October. Its really simple people. Watch the central banks and trade accordingly. They are pushing the prices down to get their buddies at JPM and Goldman out of their massive short positions, turn sentiment and then they will crush all of the shorts over night. Why do you think JPM has been buying massive amounts of long contracts and the physical metals the whole way down?
I'll take that 500 to 1. In 1800 an ounce of gold was worth $19, in 1980 an ounce was worth $641, today it is worth double that on a pullback. I think one can confidently assume that the price of Gold in Dollars is 99.9999% certain to go up over any appreciable amount of time. But for the near term who knows. I would say if countries actually went back on a Gold Standard, your world would be rocked on how much they have debased their currencies. So if you are leaving Cash in your safe deposit box for the grand kids, it is safe to say they'd prefer gold as $2,000 per ounce will be more like multiples of that when they are not so old. I'll give you 5,000 to 1 it isn't going back to $19.
I agree with you but unfortunately sentiment is what is driving the price and gold and the miners, it has nothing to do with fundamentals at this point. Notice how nobody talks about the national debt anymore? What about the debt ceiling? What about the chaos in the Middle East? What about the basket case economies in Europe? What about the physical shortage developing in the gold markets? None of this matters right now because it's all about the dollar and higher stock prices. You will always find more sellers at the bottom and more buyers at the top.
good points, but I'd rephrase it a bit and say people sell cheap stocks as they get cheaper and buy them as they get more expensive (herd mentality). no one knows the bottom or the top. that's why if you're buying as an investor rather than a trend following trader you have to buy on fundamentals, and then be willing to wait for your thesis to play out. in a way we have to be grateful for herd mentality, despite the short term pain, because it's what allows us a real advantage if we invest on value principles. the herd doesn't care about value; they just freak out when they see red in their account and jump ship.