Bottom line is, until ANV does something to scare off the shorts
that are slowly sinking this ship nothing else will matter. It's become clear that gold prices have only the smallest impact on the stock price at this point (In July it was over $7 with gold at $1330). So until management does something, or if the company outperforms in Q3, or something else that would send shorts off to ravage another miner, this thing will continue to slowly sink.
It looks like in retrospect announcing the delay of the mill expansion cost this company far more than it ever thought it would, because it made it the #1 target of shorts in the sector. And nothing but meaningful positive news is going to change that.
so to sum up: ANV is selling at a huge discount and the shorts have done us the favor by lowering the price even more. if no positive news emerges, shorts will continue to attack the stock and drive it down even further, allowing us to buy at prices at an even steeper discount to intrinsic value. Since none of these shorts know where the bottom is, the more they pile in, the more quickly ANV is going to rebound when the tide DOES turn. For all these shorts know, this is the bottom. They are taking a huge risk in shorting a stock that is down almost %100, the same kind of risk taking by long momo players, who keep buying a stock that is massively overvalued. It's the "greater fool theory" in reverse. Basically, the growing short interest in this stock is our guarantee of future wealth. We should probably be spreading negative rumors about ANV to get them to pile in even more.
As you yourself said, if ANV doesn't surprise to the positive side next quarter this company is "done." Let's hope the shorts believe that. The more people who believe this company is done, the more I buy.
lebval15 besides the entire sector being out of favor forcing weak hands out, I suspect the big money buyers of the $10.75 per share offering just a few months ago, have hedged their positions to protect themselves from huge losses here.
There will be a point at which shorts and the like will reverse course when they no longer can push this stock down any further. So look at these prices as a longer term gift :-).
I think the Q3 earnings release is going to be the positive news we need. So i'm holding until then. But if they disappoint in that release this company is done. I believe the Q3 earnings are literally make or break for ANV.