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MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. Message Board

  • twelvebuttons twelvebuttons Nov 1, 2007 3:02 PM Flag

    crox DARTH and dohate and ACE

    filling the gap -who's in?

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    • This is from CROX message board. Upgrade by Citibank.

      Some Excerpts:

      Crocs, Inc. Overweight
      If the Market Takes a Bite Out of CROX, Bite Back;
      Raising Ests.
      $74.75
      31 October 2007

      The sharp sell-off indicated in the after-market is an over-reaction, in our view,
      and creates an extremely attractive buying opportunity for a now-global brand
      with what we believe is one of the best growth profiles in our universe. While
      momentum investors may step out of the stock here, we remain believers in
      CROX and its 35%-plus projected EPS growth for next year and reiterate our
      Overweight rating.
      � Very strong initial guidance for 2008 with potential for upside. CROX�s
      projected 35-40% sales and EPS growth for 2008 is nothing to sneeze at with
      the potential for additional upside, in our view, from expanded style
      offerings overseas and additional doors. We note that just a year ago CROX
      guided for 30% growth in 2007 but should end the year up closer to 150%.
      � This is not a slowing fad. CROX bears consistently point to its fad-like
      nature and risks of a fall-off in demand; however, 3Q07 results proved that
      demand for the brand remains robust. In fact, part of the problem is that
      Crocs was out of product in Europe and Japan coming out of 2Q07. We
      think CROX�s acceptance across the globe and success with a rapidly
      expanding product portfolio (currently 90 styles) is a testament to the
      brand�s appeal.
      � Inventory growth is not unreasonable given CROX�s trajectory. Clearly
      investors will be concerned with the 220% inventory growth this quarter.
      Given CROX�s extreme growth in doors, styles and markets, we do not think
      too much should be made of this (inventory growth only up 10% in the U.S.).
      CROX has historically had trouble keeping up with demand and increased
      inventory is not necessarily a negative.
      � Raising estimates again. We are raising our 2007 and 2008 estimates to
      $2.00 and $2.70, respectively. This assumes 133% sales growth this year
      with EBIT margins of 29%. Besides DECK, there are no other companies in
      our universe delivering the type of EPS growth as CROX.

      Valuation Analysis
      CROX has evolved from a single product company that most predicted would be a
      short-lived fad to the leading player in a new footwear category with a diverse
      revenue stream. Despite the stock�s impressive run, we believe that with >35% sales
      and EPS growth projected for next year despite a very difficult consumer
      environment, CROX represents an attractive investment opportunity. CROX trades
      at 28x our 2008 EPS estimate (versus 19x for the group), which we view as
      reasonable given projected sales growth of 133% and EPS growth of 143%. In
      addition, with over 20 million shares still short, we believe that significant upside
      remains from current levels.

    • Darth just did a great chart on CROX and he has all the entries posted.. it might be under "ferts" heading too - go back a few clicks to find it - we have hashed over it - so read those posts - hope that helps..I am long CROX, and also still in the black - I added at 47 and change today...but don't buy on my rec - do your own dd...CROX also has its own board but they are kinda of EMOTIONAL over there...lol Good Luck and enjoy your crox!

      12b

    • Here's the thing. I bought Crocs for the Mrs. and the kids and they love them. Since my 13-year-old son is almost as tall as me and has a bigger foot, I slip his on occasionally to go get the paper, etc. And I LIKE them. I'm seriously, at this late date, thinking of getting a pair. Soooo.....I cannot be the only one who's just now coming around, do you think? In any case, I'm still up 300% and can gamble a bit on this company.

    • Rambler - to each his own - neither one of us has a future fashion gig at Vogue -I don't wear CROX...but I acknowledge its market - it doens't have to make sense - it only has to make money - not going to overthink or judge it or vote on it - just here to make some coin and move on. I am sure there is an underlying cultural thang to it all but I really don't care.

    • I'm in since pre-splt $23. Bought more today at $48 and change. There were pie-in-the-sky expectations going into earnings, but I like it again here. Earnings growth of 30%/year are fine by me and recesssion or no people gotta buy shoes. The worse things get, the more comfy those shoes need to be, and if you're out of work, you don't care how ugly they are. Kinda the George Costanza school of thought, if you know what I mean. (But, I hasten to add, they're not all ugly.)

    • try the CMI gap

    • got out this morning for a small loss. All indications are the stock is broken. Please, convince me otherwise, will trade entire float today.

    • Not me, I hate CROX!!

      Good Luck, though!

 

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