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MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. Message Board

  • darthrapier darthrapier Jul 7, 2009 8:13 AM Flag

    Pre-Market Darth Observations - 7/7


    The world is mixed today. Europe is trading up 70-100 bips. Japan and Taiwan closed down 30 and 70 bips, respectively. India was up 90 bips. Australia was down 43 bips and China was down 113 bips. Our futures (QQQQ) are flat. We usually follow Europe though.

    Today and 7/22 are potential trend change days. Let's see if they can change the trend and get the Markets to move back up into 7/22. We did get below the low of Thursday on the S&P 500 and closed above so technically, we do have a chance to move back up the wall of worry. For me, the Market will "talk" when we test the QQQQ 34.77 pivot. Hasn't happened yet. The Market "talks" at pivots.

    Note: Estimates lowered by Kaufman on WFR to 2009 eps of $.31/share from $.33/share.

    Other Observations?

    1) Goog earnings/guidance? ISCA
    2) Goog upgrades? UBS likes CTL, BAC likes LSI, STO, STLD, MRVL & APC, Jefferies likes BRCD & MMM, Rochdale likes NTRS, Riley likes EPIC and OPY likes IMGN.
    3) Goog gappers? DNDN, JNY, KSS, MRVL, INTC, MHS, XOM, LSI, APC, MT, DB and BHP.
    4) Bad gappers? DFS and HNSN.
    5) Cramer? Likes MHS and wants to give everyone a 5% T-Bond for their 401k and IRA.
    6) IBD likes TRLG.
    7) GS likes JNY & KSS.
    8) PALM to lauch Pre in Europe by Christmas.
    9) ALGT announces goog same store flying yoy. Buy on a move over 40.47.
    10) LAZ wants to play golf with ELY! Price target is $12/share. I guess they read the board.
    11) Trade of the Day? I like the upgrade of JNY by GS off the 50 day ema. After all, they are the Masters of the Universe as long as no one steals their code.


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    • completely agree w/ TRAD (the Gral Executor of Luxembourg):

      The stairs have the same raised.
      If they repeat the drop, DJIA 'll go until 8000 and then were less fluctuating +/- 200 points (between 7800 / 8200).
      That was the last step >> DJIA 8400 (between 8200 / 8600)

      And the TRAD inflection point is the most painful: DJIA below 7700-i guess not possible today-anything can happen.
      You are reading my repurchase OIL point: DJIA 7800 if it happens (8000 is a great repurchase for me too)

      Tomorrow we'll have inventories > if you are consuming OIL.

      if the main international rates remains low or going at lowest numbers ....augur very low productivity, rising unemployment and no green shoot on this side of the planet.

      Only Rogers and Peewee can eat smoked dog (instead of smoked salmon) and earning money.


    • Skipper,

      Low predictiions are hard because Obama the economy destructor hasn't been stopped yet.

      I hope we don't retrace more than 50% of the run up from the March lows. That would get us to:

      DOW 7700
      S&P 810
      NDX 1275
      IWM 44
      Rifin 515

      Alternatly they could easily stop going down at the 38.2% retrace for less of a correction.

      I never rely on these prdictions, just use them for probabilities and overall trend. My trading horizon is short enough that I just trade what I see at the moment. But the trend means its safer to trade with the trend than against it.

    • Trad,

      True although the more I think about it the more I think volume can be a false indicator if hedgies are using derivatives, etc. So, it may be more difficult to make a call on an index rather than a particular stock.

      Regardless, the Q pivot was busted on volume so I can project a number as follows:

      A = 37.18
      B = 34.77
      C = 36.84
      D1 = 1:1 = 34.43
      D2 = 1:1.382 = 33.51
      D3 = 1:1.618 = 32.94

      If I had to guess, I'd guess on Door #2 which would get us to test out the late May low of QQQQ 33.14. Let's see how close I come.

      It certainly "feels" like we're ultimately going to test that QQQQ gap down around QQQQ 31 doesn't it. That would be near a 50% retracement of the move from March.


    • Trad,

      That being said about volume would you mind giving mee your low predictions on:
      IWM or (R2K)



      Glad to hear you had a goog 4th of July too!
      Very interesting post earlier about what might happen to the markets if we go another round of bailout/stimulas and Gov. run healthcare.
      Gives mee a sick spot in the pit of my stomach but nothing I haven't thought of before.
      OK, days over, let have a GOOG NITE.

    • i recognize my lack of affection for Wall Street.
      But if i don't recognize the task of JPM for each of the crappy days i would be dishonest.
      JPM rises every time the DJIA reduce above 1% in the 90% of these days.
      JPM and DJIA down together when we've red bloody days (10 %?)

      JPM down gently or lateralized low when the DJIA is selling and increasing.
      They are the great moderators.
      Mr Dimon and his big boys -no doubt about their confidence- do the work without any appreciation for us.

      JPM looks like ATLAS holding the world, being themselves an equivalent to the prey birds who ate the entrails in the other myth ..the Sisyphus myth...

    • Darth,

      Had a great 4th of July long weekend, yesterday was the best, everybody else went home to go to work and the sun was out all day.

      Just sitting on the dock waiting for a line of storms to go through this afternoon.

      It looks like the head and shoulders patterns on the major indices has formed. S&P500 broke through the 888 right shoulder. I think the S&P will go down at least to 845 probably 810. It could go even lower.

      The economy is not getting better. Obama's economic policies are hurting the country while he sucks up to commies and wants the impeached Honduran dictator wannabe restored to power.

      I think we will have a clasic summer swoon and hit a bottom in late Sept, early Oct. That's a typical market cycle. Only if it becomes clear the economic damage will stop (no cap&tax, no second "stimulus", no nationalized health care) will the market recover.

      I'm bearish.

      • 4 Replies to tradantradentradin
      • As bearish as I am as well as the whole crew on cnbc and you guys,the technicals are not broken if IWM closes over 49.09 and Q's over 34.77 and of course S&p stays above 888.There is not a high volume of both buying side and selling too ,the market does not want to go down easily right now.Could you elaborate on this and what would be the best sector to short in case we go down?
        thank you

      • Dears DARTHANDTRADE:
        Gentleman and Executor of Luxembourg:

        May obtained a 5% on XIN but.. not sell the few shares i bought yesterday.
        Very happy with the down price barrels and we all know this price copy the DJIA curve and its steps. It's easier to study the future of the oil than DJIA: saves time.

        Understand the silver is harder than gold, but that i'll do this week.
        Devote to commodity grains and metals that are carrying malicious intent.
        It's stupid to go back the price of foods ... but the market is what it is: a liar.
        I do best and fastest opportunity in grains rebound than metals.


      • Trad,

        Welcome back.

        I've got the neckline at SPX 879 (see chart) so the conservative short would be to wait for the break of SPX 879 on volume with a re-test of SPX 879. The measured target would be SPX 802. Hasn't happened yet but sure feels like it might happen.

        AA just came in to save the day. The best bullish moves I've seen are H&S failures where the early shorts are late to cover. If that happens, I would expect a bullish move to the next Bradley turn date of 7/22. If not, then we go down to SPX 802 into this date.

        AA will let us know Wednesday ah. They seem to think China is turning around for the better. Reminds me of the JPM/C news at the March lows but we'll see.


      • If you are bullish you might want to look at:


        If you are bearish you might want to look at:


        Whatever you do, do your due first.

    • Board,

      Well, the Q's seem to want to get down there and test the QQQQ 34.77/share pivot. So be it. The Q's are going to need over 115 million shares to confirm the ABC down to 34.43 which also happens to be the 200 day ema. Maybe we'll get a bounce there.

      Goog stocks from my watch list?


      Seems to be a Chinese theme here.

      Goog sector today? Health care:

      MHS (Cramer), WCG, WLP, HUM, AET, CI, UNH, etc.

      It's not a goog market when the Politicians talk and stocks start to move. That's what's happening to HMO's today.

      Low priced stocks?

      THC, JAZZ, SQNM, IVN and IRE

      WFR? Could be a trade is she closes above $15.85/share today on less than 8.9 million. But, you'll be trying to catch THE low which is never an easy thing to do.

      Goog hunting.