Every 3rd quarter report is benefited from sales booked in the 2nd quarter (april, may, june)is delivered in july, aug, or sept. This is because blti does not consider them sold or part of the revenues until they are delivered. The company likes the sales representative to deliver the laser, help set it up, adjust it, give the dentist some operating tips, encouragement etc.
this happens qtr after qtr. Each qtr gains from the previous qtr and gives up revenues to the next qtr. At 50k per laser, lets say 40 lasers that are not delivered in one qtr but are carries over to the next qtr, that is 1 million dollars in revenues and adds a profit of slightly over 5 cents per share to that next quarters earnings. If there is a delay in delivery of a few units in a great quarter, this can real help out the next quarter, if they are in a weak quarter, they can sent them out parcel post, and down the road the sale rep makes an appointment to install the unit after dentist has receive it.
30 days behind in deliveries *could amount* to a shift of 4 million dollars in sales revenues (80 units). Each year as sales increase, this carry over becomes more important. the company won�t give you these number, imo they don�t want you to know how it works.
imo, most of sales in sept., came after labor day, in the last 20 days of the month and probably weren�t delivered until the 4th qtr. Sept is considered a real good month even thou sales are compressed into the last half of that month. Because of the new tax law, blti may be forced to make deliveries at an accelerated pace to the last working day of the year. 17 million in sales about 22 cents/share would be very easy for the 4th qtr.
in the evaluation of the stock right now, this is a very important factor.
From the prospectus "Our directors and executive officers have agreed to enter into �lock up� agreements with the underwriters, in which they will agree to refrain from selling their shares for a period of 120 days after this offer."
>>>>>>I think THIS is why stock goes up after offerings, inital, follow-on, secondary, whatever. Analysts really move stocks, for better or worse.<<<<<<
Oh, and one more point. This day-to-day stuff we get anxious over won't matter.
Only the multiple at which we want to choose as our exit point.
Basically, it's a good thing that the road show will be done, the offering will be behind us, the quiet period will be over, good news will come out, and new analysts will be on board.
And the stock will be out. Hopefully with a LONG lock-up period.
I'll apologize for the message deluge and sign off now. :)
all. SEC reg's about 2 or 3 years ago, I'm not going, but if you open an account at one of those company, you can probably get the registered rep. to get you invited. The institution dept or the syndicate dept of any of the underwriters will tell you where and when the show in your part of the USA is being held.
Oh, by the way... If you don't believe in short squeezes, just watch how the short interest figure reacts when Prudential initiates coverage. How about when Merrill follows?
Analyst coverage will also change the tone of this board, and all the armchair analysts will quiet down. Forget that. Some here will probably argue over their estimates. But that sounds like a good problem to me.
The timer's ticking on the short interest and on the manipulation. It may happen in the future, but on a different scale, and at a much higher price level.
Remember when BLTI didn't even have its BQF options? We are used to penny ante, and step-by-step, the company emerges into the real market. Options, Business Week, IBD, check. Next -- Wall Street Journal, and about five new big house analysts.
This isn't hype or cheerleading. This is FUTURE FACT.
Again, my opinion, and my sense.
Well, what we REALLY want to happen is to have BIOLASE garner some new analyst coverage. Getting the stock placed is a gimme. Absolutely in the bag. The tour will include some new analyst houses, hopefully some big names will pick up coverage. We have three relatively small houses today. Think about adding Prudential Securities? Lehman? Smith Barney? Janney? CSFB? CIBC? Goldman? Merrill? Morgan? We get the picture.
I think THIS is why stock goes up after offerings, inital, follow-on, secondary, whatever. Analysts really move stocks, for better or worse.
At that point, EPS, PEG, and even top-line sales won't matter to us. Only to the analysts as their voices will drown out our feeble attempts to debate it and pin it down here. Even you, Pkewl, as vociferous as you are. :) On that day, we'll still be here debating upgrades and downgrades.
My suggestion is that anybody reading this BUY all you can afford (I have) before the first analyst INITIATION of coverage happens. That will drive the price up. Then THEY will do the earnings estimates, there will be whisper numbers because the analysts have a hotline to the CEO and CFO.
My opinion. Your mileage may vary.
I find it sad to report this, but when you wrote, "Several messages ago, around #40396, Pkewl says with bravado
"how many of those dentists will lease the machine and not purchase one? Have you purposely avoided this issue gringoman?"
As if it effects the sales to Biolase. Then sunbuyers points out that all leases are through a third party, and hence it is still a sale for Biolase, just to a third party, and they in turn lease it to the dentist. A sale is a sale."
Lets look at the message in question:
"Re: gringoman, Q4 revenues
by: pkewl_1 (50/M/Washington, DC) 11/11/03 03:56 pm
Msg: 40396 of 40572
Gringomen, Where I say you needed to use your cash to get the deduction? I don�t remember writing that. I think my point was that financing would be required, the cost of which would in turn affect the payback.
Your treating of the $15,000 on taxes as �a huge savings� misses the point. There is another $35K that needs to be financed or paid for.
My point on the number of leased machines, which you �don�t care� about, is germane to the tax question. Leasers don�t get a tax break. Did you miss this or ignore it on purpose.
I didn�t take credit for �70 million in the near term [being] pure fantasy.� I quoted your support of the idea. How is that spin?
I have read your response to my observation that 50% growth comment not being ordained several times. What are you trying to say? You seem to agree with it having no basis in fact, but dismiss this because it is a �projection� on a new event. So you admit your whole thesis is a wild assed guess?
Finally your assessment that my projection for 15 million, in essence says that �there will be no additional dentists taking advantage of the NEW TAX LAW which provides a 400% increase over last years deductions.� Obviously not! I wrote that I expect an increase of 68% or $6.5M above the $9.5M they grossed last quarter.
Only in the lemming infested message board world of BLTI would a prediction of 68% YOY growth in sales and 300% YOY growth in profits have posters accuse one of being a short."
What I don't understand is why you would tell so blantant a lie. I mean giving the post number and all. What were you thinking? Not thinking I suppose.
This dealing in facts is hard I know, but with a little effort, I'm sure you'll get the hang of it.