A lot of us will be effected by the Alternative Minimum Tax. That Bush is slippery. Keep this in mind when determining when to go long term or short term.
I'm still an optomist in spite of the problems. Afterall I'm still long BLTI. :-)
I read something long ago about population numbers and it was claimed that we could divide Texas into 5 acre plots and give every man women and child one of them and there would still be land left over. I never calculated it out to see if it was correct. But imagin the commuter problem. Whooooeeeee!
Depends on what kind of a time frame you're giving Malthus.
With the fawcet still wide open (natality) and drain (mortality) continually being stopped up, it's just a matter of time. We're on a growth rate right now of about 1.6% a year which means our doubling time is about every 45 years. Your putting a lot of faith in technology if you think mother nature can handle that kind of a growth rate. Can she enable us to double the number of houses, the number of automobiles, volume of food, double the capacity of handling the refuse, meet the power demands, etc.,etc. every 45 years.
In nature the predators tend to control burgeoning populations. Our predators which are growing at a faster rate and mutating at an ever more rapid rate than we are will eventually make Malthus look like the genius that he really was.
However the blessed poor shall inherit the earth and we Biolase shareholders will be able to hop aboard the Enterprise and buy a few square feet on a space station somewhere.
Not that I would sell technology short, with there being water on Mars (probably down a few kilometers), who knows there may be a homesteading rush. Might even be a University up there with a mascot name of "Laters" for those of us waiting for this sucker to get off $18.25.
I am sorry to disagree with you regarding wind-powered electricity, but very few areas have enough wind to generate cost effective electricity. There is an area near Palm Springs, CA, which has had wind, powered electric generation for over thirty years. It has been subsidized by both state and federal tax credits and actual money rebates to the owners of these machines. The efficiency of these turbines has been greatly improved over the years, but even with natural gas at $8 a mcf and oil approaching $35 these wind mills will not provide cheaper electricity.
I own some shares of a company in southern CO, EVG, which has developed a very efficient natural gas field. The profits have grown tremendously because of the high price of NG. Many of the locals in CO have tried to stop their development of this very productive gas field.
As long as the tree huggers are successful in preaching alternative power and thwart the domestic development of oil and gas, we will keep seeing higher prices for those commodities.
To give you just one example of the irresponsible information given out by some of these environmental groups I will tell you a brief story.
A few years I was in my doctor's office waiting room and picked up a magazine, which was sponsored by Greenpeace. The article that caught my interest was how some environmental group in CO had "forced the CO oil companies to start pumping cement around the pipes when they drilled oil wells. The article continued to say that this was protecting the underground water, etc. What is hilarious is that oil companies have been cementing all wells for probably 90-100 years, not only to protect the ground water, but also to isolate the oil and gas zones in order to produce the product. Both federal and state laws also require it. Environmentalist really had nothing to do with oil companies cementing oil wells. Just one example of how uneducated some tree huggers are about the true facts.
I guess what I am really trying to say is that I encourage you to continue spreading the gospel about no nuclear power and that the alternative power of wind and solar is what we need in this country. You and your like thinking cohorts will continue to cause the prices of oil and gas to go up.
Well said, madwing.
I see two basic problems:
1) Most politicians dont really give a
2)Private industry is working on it as is evidenced by all the systems you described. Private individuals and companies will rise to the occasion as they have in the past. Our old friend Malthus has had his nose rubbed in his predictions many times as technology prevented his predictions from materalizing.
Just when I'm about to re-consider the liberal-socialist perspective on America, I see Kennedy on TV and that pretty much takes care of that! A buffoon-no a poorly drawn carricature of a buffoon.
i am a big advocate of alternative energies and fuels...
the problem with them, in short, lies in the fact that coal, oil, gas, nuke, and to some extent hydro are all "high quality, high intensity" energies. that is, their primary combustion/creation generates high kwh output for low short-term infrastructural input (ie, build a dam once, it gives hydro for years, high voltage, etc.). wood, solar (passive and active), wind, small hydro, etc. are all great for the individual, or for communities, but manufacturing processes that require regular, intense, high energy inputs can't get by on them.
biofuels (using macadamia nut hulls as fuel, etc.) might bridge the gap, but the question then arises about food scarcity and distribution.
a mix of things is what's necessary. how much will plastic cost when oil runs out, or increases in price fivefold? well, maybe we don't use fossil oil as a basis for plastics. if policymakers were *smart*, they'd identify the key consumers (not by their pork barrel, but by their impact on the economy) of oil and keep them increasing in efficiency, and would change other uses away from fossil oil. hydrogen fuel cells for cars, perhaps, or cng, or biodiesel. solar on and in every house. stop burning off gas flares; hell, bottle it and sell it to the locals for cooking gas. small hydro in local communities to run the firestation and police station, where applicable (obviously solar in the az desert, and hydro in washington state!).
find me a company or a policy group that is viewing the world this way, and i'll show you a growth industry in the 21st century and beyond.
"Some people, even in my own country, look at the riot of experiment that is the free market and see only waste. What of all the entrepreneurs that fail? Well, many do, particularly the successful ones; often several times. And if you ask them the secret of their success, they'll tell you it's all that they learned in their struggles along the way; yes, it's what they learned from failing. Like an athlete in competition or a scholar in pursuit of the truth, experience is the greatest teacher. And that's why it's so hard for government planners, no matter how sophisticated, to ever substitute for millions of individuals working night and day to make their dreams come true." --Ronald Reagan