Though it doesnt take into account dilution of 10%.
Ive seen too many cyclical companies to take PEG too seriously. And its definately not an exact gauge like PE. I mean a utility company expected to have 0 growth year after year is still worth about 15-20 pe, though its PEG is infinite.
I believe were still in the early stages at BLTI and expect them to sell at least 2000 units/year this year or next, at still be growing 30-40%/yr.
100 Mill in rev/yr
By then the profit margin will be 35% and earnings 35 Mil.($1.40). Assuming a pe of 40, the price would be $56.
Definately dont sell at this valuation with the revs accelerating.
Going to a lunch meeting today. Checked in early. Not really much to see so far.
BTW, my son is back in Kuwait and scheduled to be back in the US by the end of the month. He wants to buy back in so I put an order in for 700 IRA shares at $18.40.
You're welcome for the link. You miss the point. It's not about when you got in and out in the time following or about how much you made or didn't make. It's about a prediction of share price in February being way wrong. You see the world through pkewl colored glasses. Context has nothing to do with it.
And by the way. You have never GONE LONG. You've only GONE SHORT TERM.
I see you guys replying to him. He's on my ignore list and I can't see why he's not on yours. Remember the saying "Never try to teach a pig to sing. Not only will you fail, but you will annoy the pig".
It was made three days before I WENT LONG at $11.78.
Those who followed me in those last two trades sold at $15.69 on 10/30, bought at on 11/24 at $11.78 and sold at $17.28 on 12/24/03 earned $9.41. Yes, the estimate was conservative and I did raised it in December. But, does criticizing that estimate give the full picture of the event? I think not. Here is the whole picture:
The post was in response to this post on 11/20 from Robert:
"After reading so many of your negative opinions about BLTI I think it's safe to say that you have no plans on buying at these levels. You havn't mentioned shorting the stock from what I've seen. If you don't own any shares, don't plan on shorting them or buying then what is your motivation for being so interested to the point of disscussing it all day. I'm trying to understand why you exert this much effort?"
I replied on 11/21:
" have been in and out of the stock twice since the earnings announcement. I currently have a buy order in. If $11.50 holds on volume I will be long again.
My outlook only appears negative to those who expectations are unreasonably high, IMHO. Heck, I'm predicting $15M gross and $3M profit for 4Q03 and $0.25 unadulterated earnings for 2003.
My price target for February is between $12.50 and $15.00. This makes buying at $14 kind of silly, IMHO, but at $11.40 not so bad."
The high for 11/21 was $11.95. I had sold 22 days earlier at $15.69.
The $14 dollar reference was to that 2-day period when BLTI ran ahead of itself based on the push through pump up of the 3rd quarter earnings.
I bought three days later on 11/24 at $11.78. The high that day was $12.16, the low was $11.55.
Being out of the stock those 28 days earned me
Can you now see how these out of context postings can be twisted my the uninformed and willfully twisting pumpers?
GSB, I know. I don't know why I bother sometimes. I posted this link before and pkewls only response was that it's "out of context". Which it is not. I post this again because I want all to see how wrong pkewl can be.
He said $12.50 to $15 for Feb citing $15M revenue and $3M earning in the same note. His median share price prediction for Feb was $13.75. And the actual avg share price for Feb was what, about $19/share. There is quite a difference between $13.75 and $19. He'll never admit to being this wrong though.
I'm a true long anyway (in since $4.5ish) so pkewl has no real affect on me other than having to see his endless stating of the obvious and endless argueing. He's his own lemming, if you know what I mean.
Like you say, it's useless.
Nice find. I feel bad for those poor souls who bought at the "silly" price of $14, LOL! Poor bastards could have sold 5 or 6 weeks later for $21. Hmmm, 50% profit in that time. Yes, lets just keep following his lead, LMAO!!!!!!!!!