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BIOLASE, Inc. Message Board

  • lookingforatenbagger lookingforatenbagger Nov 30, 2012 10:17 AM Flag

    A responce to simonig from October

    A thoguhtful post that requires a thoughtful reply, but for some reaosn Yahoo won't let me in the original thread..

    Hi John,
    Thank you again for your reply. Your points are well taken. Concerning the Dentists, I agree that in most cases (if not all) their number one motive is to increase profits when they are making a buying decision of the BIOL products. You also note that Henry Schein was unable to increase sales when they agreed to an exclusive distribution agreement. History tells us that this is true. However, there could be different reasons for Henry Schein's poor performance. These reasons include a lack of training for their sales force, a lack of interest/motivation...etc. More recently a short history has also shown us that BIOL has been able to outperform Henry Schein with increasing sales as they have switched to the direct sales model. I am thinking that they now have the right sales formula and sales will continue to increase as word gets around the dental community worldwide through the new marketing efforts BIOL is undertaking. I assume you have purchased BIOL at higher prices and have ridden it down to its lows today. I think with a little time this stock will recover and hit new highs and be a real winner for you. I have been in a similar situation with another stock and have felt similar to the way you do about BIOL. Eventually my stock recovered and I made a little money as well. I am confident that BIOL's unique products will make a difference in the dental profession. Give it a little time.

    Best Regards,

    Simon

    Simon you have been fooled by volume as profits slip away. You must remeber that Biolase was selling to Shein at reduced profit margins because Shein had picked up most of teh sales and marketing cost. When one looks at the numbers one sees Biolase has yet to reach the voulumes of inspite of peddling other high priced low volume goodies, It is the low margins and increases in quarterly losses that really tell the tale.

    Revenue History (Millions):
    Year…Q1…Q2…Q3…Q4..Total
    -----------------------------------
    2003…09…10….13…16…49
    2004…14…15….12…19…61
    2005…17…15….12…19…62
    2006…17…16….17…19…70
    2007…15…17….12…24…67
    2008…19…18…15…12…64
    2009…06…14…12…10…43
    2010…04…06…06…10…26
    2011….11….12….13….13…49
    2012….12….13*….14….18(e)…57

    And that $18M 4Q12 estimate is shaky, IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Hi Lookingforatenbagger,
      You make a good point that BIOL's product margins are important. However, although the margins may have been higher when selling to Schein, note that after schein took over sales, sales declined quarter after quarter. Now that Pignatelli is running the show and has full control of sales, we have just the opposite in that sales are increasing quarter after quarter as are product shipments. Also note that he only recently was able to shake free of Schein. We have several things going in BIOL's favor. First, I believe that Pignatelli has the right formula and knows what he is doing. Second, they have a unique and innovative product line which is patent protected and the products have compelling advantages over the decades old tools which they are replacing. I also believe that the market may only now be starting to understand these advantages and getting ready to adopt BIOL's products. BIOL's task at hand is to package the deal (including financing) in such a way as to allow the improvement in revenues to make it as painless as possible for the purchasers (the Dentists) to invest in their business. Hopefully we will eventually (maybe soon) see a snowball effect in the Dental market where the Dentists who have not adopted the new technology will feel they need to in order to stay competitive. This may take several years. I am not looking for a "quick hit" in this stock but rather see BIOL as a good long term investment. I would be happy if BIOL is cash flow positive this quarter (Q4-12) and makes a profit next year (2013). Note that BIOL's technology may also be applied in other areas and BIOL is pursuing these additional opportunities. I see BIOL as a growth stock with their patented unique technology addressing very large markets developing/growing over the next 10 years. I am glad that I discovered this stock at an opportune time when the stock is at a historic low. The stock may stay low for the rest of the year as year end tax loss selling pressure increases. My plan is to continue to accumulate as time and funds allow. I am not trying to convince anyone to buy BIOL. I am merely sharing my thoughts. I am placing a bet on Pignatelli and BIOL. But, I may be wrong and could end up losing my investment. In any case, I appreciate the thoughtful discussion/responses. Thank you.

      Best Regards,

      Simon

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to simonig
      • I'm afraid you do not understand that Freddie have been involved from the befinning, hiring and firing CEOs that tried and failed to implement Freddie's policies. Freddie wanted to bring Sxhiwn in and convinced them to invest millions with Biolase they had to write off. The sales plan he is trying now is no difference from before Schein, as Biolase burned through over $70M.

        Freddie has been claiming that THIS IS FINALLY THE TIME the dental community sees the LIGHT every year for a decade. One should ask, "WHY is the stock off 90% from its high?" given that the basic technology hasn't changed in a decade.

        With Biolase almost out of cash and credit AGAIN, it is doubtful they can develop any of the "promising" technologies. What are patents that are close to losing their protect worth?

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • None of you here have any Distribution experience............LION spend 20 years in marketing disruptive technologies and my DD still dictates that BIOL can not independently sustain going forward...........Management Ego will drive it where? AMEN & Mercy my Lord

        Stock is heading to a $1

        I wish you all best of luck for exit without any liquidity in BIOL trading pit going forward..........

 
BIOL
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