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BIOLASE, Inc. Message Board

  • lookingforatenbagger lookingforatenbagger Feb 11, 2013 5:10 PM Flag

    Why were gross sales less in FY2012 than in 2004/2005/2006?

    In 2004/2005/2006 Biolase was rapidly building its inhouse sales force. The sales force was relatively new and inexperieinced, much like the 2012 sales force.

    In FY2012 Biolase had more diverse and "better" product line than they did in 2004/2005/2006 (according to Freddie).

    Why aren't they able to meet the gross sales levels they achieved in 2004/2005?

    Revenue History (Millions):
    Year…Q1…Q2…Q3…Q4..Total
    -----------------------------------
    2004…14…15….12…19…61
    2005…17…15….12…19…62
    2006…17…16….17…19…70
    2011….11…12….13….13…49
    2012….12…13*….14….18(e)…57

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Hi LFTB,
      You are back again with your half truths and negative spin. It was the Henry Schein mistake made by the previous management and Board of Directors which Pignatelli corrected. He is still in the process of correcting that mistake which he had opposed. The bulk of BIOL's new direct sales force was brought on in Q4-2012. How quickly did you expect for BIOL to get back on track? Their progress so far has been nothing less than REMARKABLE!

      Best Regards,

      Simon

      PS:As I said last month, we will just have to wait and see to measure BIOL's progress at the end of the year when the new direct sales force has had some time to mature. Pignatelli has set the table and it appears that the market is beginning to recognize the progress and the value represented by BIOL! Remember that even at $4 per share, BIOL has so few shares outstanding that its market cap is a mere $125 million. This has a lot of room to go a long way UP!

      • 2 Replies to simonig
      • Half truth???? If the facts are NEGATIVE its not SPIN. You make a distinction betwenn "previous management" and Freddie's new regime. I know that Freddie denies it, but it is a FACT that he had the final say on the hiring and firing of every Biolase CEO. FREDDIE canned Jeff Jones in his second stint as CEO because Jeff told Freddie the Schein plan wasn't going to work. Call jeff Jones and ask him.

        You say, "The bulk of BIOL's new direct sales force was brought on in Q4-2012" That's laughable. Look at the quarter by quarter increase in sales cost starting in 4Q10 to 3Q12. Are you expecting that to double? Once again lets revisit the FACTS. Freddie told us in a PR that he CUT the sales force in 4Q10. The head count has been increasing steadily since then.

        You say the progress has been "remarkable." Perphaps if he had to develope a sales force from scratch it would be, but he didn't. Biolase had an in place sales staff as late as 2006. In 2006 the gross was $70M. I don't know the size of the 2006 sales force, but the cost of sales numbers are comparable and Freddie's new guys who only did $57M. Is getting back to ~80% of 2006 levels in TWO YEARS remarkable? in 2007 they only had the MD. Today he is Biolase is shilling for OEMs, has hand helds and the supposed superior iLase to sell. Is this remarkable? I don't think so.

        You correctly observe the market cap is ~$125 million ($115M as I write), but fail to mention the book value is 33 CENTS. Yes the book/cap is 11.7. That is horrid.

        Let's assume Biolase commanded Google's PE of 25 (not likely). To justify $3.75/share they would have to earn $0.15/share. With 31M shares out that's ~$4.5M. Is that likely in 2013? I don't think so. The current high estimate (just revised in January is $0.08. The low is a peny and I think that's optomistic. Plug in that $0.08 into a PE of 25 and you $2/share as the high estimate. The low estimate gives you $0.25/share.

        Sentiment: Sell

      • Simon, does LFTB mean "left behind?" Hahahaha! Because skum bagger is being left behind.

    • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Feb 11, 2013 11:22 PM Flag

      Two years of consistent growth sounds like a bull case. Double digit y/y growth. 93% of '04 revenues when the stock traded at $18...seems like we might be under valued even before adding in recent patents, and FDA approval for new markets. What's not to like?

      It's not to late to get on the right side of this trade, just take the hit this week, you can make up more than your losses by going long now, it's only going to get worse from here on out for shorts. These new markets and patents weren't present in those early years, it's not the same company moving forward, and it would be a tragic mistake to think otherwise.

 
BIOL
2.48+0.02(+0.81%)Sep 29 4:00 PMEDT

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