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BIOLASE, Inc. Message Board

  • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Aug 24, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

    Let's talk Moving Averages

    I like to follow the company, but I know you guys like to look at the chart, so lat's take a gander at this Rorschach test. Start with the 52 week high in April, everything as great, spring had sprung, love was in the air, stock was up several hundred percent, but then the skies turned grey, the air got cold, and no love was to be found, and here we sit. Does that sound about right?

    Starting with the highest number first, the chronology In April was price over, 10dma, 20dma, 50dma, 200dma. Do you have a mental picture of that? Good, now put the 100dma off the side, it's special, and we'll talk about it later. You could say that in April the market was very optimistic, judging by the chart, and moving averages, nothing was going to stop us. Look at the current scenario starting with the highest number first, the chronology is 200dma, 50dma, 20dma, 10dma, price. Pessimism seems rampant, and judging by the chart, and moving averages nothing is going to save us.

    Are you seeing the correlation yet? Let's bring in the 100dma, it's unique talent is identitying investor sentiment, or rather the market's over optimism / pessimism, and it works in opposition; up means down, and down means up. In April the 100dma had a positive climb rate of .03-.04 / day, today it has a descent rate of -.03 / day. Remember bad means good on the 100dma, now when you look at the broader picture it makes more sense. OMG, that's kinda like a mirror image! I know, right? Like, call your BFF, and back up the truck or something!

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    • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Oct 22, 2013 8:04 AM Flag

      Just wanted to let you know AAPL is doing well today going to get a lift today from NFLX's blowout quarter, by the way...where's that signalong character? He's been screaming how NFLX and BIOL need to be shorted. What's funny is NFLX just turned the proverbial profit corner that BIOL is looking at...they were only growing rev with a share price in the 50's a year ago, then as a result of those revenue efforts, earnings followed, and is now flirting with the 400's! It's not a stretch for BIOL to do something similar and reach the teens as we sit on the cusp of revenue efforts...

    • Just though y'all might take notice that AAPL had the very same setup with MAs inverted like BIOL, just several weeks sooner...

    • thebumblegamer Aug 25, 2013 6:00 PM Flag

      Friend, just the happy bumbling gamer here, fascinated by all your nonsensical analysis. The homework on BIOL should be easy enough for a 5th grader to research. Apparently, once upon a time, this small company made a little bit of money. Now they don't, and they're scorching thru enough cash to set the Burning Man ablaze. BILE might be ripe enough for a bit of day trading, but anything more would soon stink up any portfolio. Cheers.

      • 1 Reply to thebumblegamer
      • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Aug 25, 2013 9:05 PM Flag

        No problem pal. We're all here to engage in discussion and exchange ideas, so what lessons have you learned after years of successful day trading that will benefit the day trader here? What play(s) and contingencies should day traders be setting up here? Wanna do some spreads, or derrivative plays, ooh let's get reckless and go all in on Jan 14 2.50's then wait for marginable status and execute 'em with margin, like preleverage leverage.

        Am I to gleen from your post that you see the same things I do in the MACD, RSI, Fibonacci levels, moving averages just on the technical side? Or do you read them differently? I'm sure we'd all like to hear other legitimate views on these things, I know I would. If your projected Monday closing price required to generate a crossover of the MACD is different than my true zenith of 1.96, let's hear it. I trust you are able to do the required computations for that? What's your price target after a completion of the crossover?

        You never answered me about what effect Schein's accrural style of accounting for sales has had on BIOL stock? Schein was claiming sales of units when in fact they were just wharehousing them. Biolase had to bail them out a few times with a sort of "public school system - everyone is a winner" solution and lower expectations, that Schein promised mid you, before finally cleaning house in 2010, buying back all equipment, and growing sales ever since.

        Perhaps you'd rather discuss Richard Pearson's false claims that BIOL's cash burn will be 12M, when management says 3.5M - 4.5M, or that he didn't take the time to read the amended S-3 form, and reported that it was just a reaffirmation, even though language had changed regarding shorting of related shares (he's a former banker who is short, strange that he would miss something like that.) Maybe that's too fundamenatl though, so we can stick to the easy stuff if it pleases you. This was a good talk I feel smarter already, thanks...friend. Have me met? ;)

    • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Aug 25, 2013 4:03 PM Flag

      Our less than esteemed local basher points out that this post isn't clear, so let me sum it up. Rember when AAPL was so loved that you couldn't go anywhere without hearing someone talking about the stock, even non-investors were investing, then it fell over (once again gaining favor). Or how about the recent comeback kid of NFLX with a 52 wk high on Friday that's 425% above its 52 wk low, it was like the readheaded step child of the market, but look at it now. Both are examlpes of extreme investor sentiment that precedes a reversal, in opposition of that sentiment.

      If you want more data, the relative strength index tells you when a security is over bought, or over sold. In normal stocks an RSI over 70 is over bought, and below 30 is over sold. For a volitile stock like BIOL, you need to bump the range out to 80/20, the current value sits at 26 with a low of 3.8 on August 14th (over sold!)

      The 20 day moving average offers a nice suppport / resistance level, currently parked at 2.50.

      Then there is 2.50 itself, the market is a fickel bunch; obsessive compulsive types who just like things like round numbers for no good reason (2.50, 5.00, 10.00)

      Fibonacci (some smart dude that noticed common mathematical patterns in everything) offers up some numbers for our amusement. 38.2% of the high to low retracement should put the first stop on this numeric train at a lovely town called $2.99, further down the line sits half town (More OCD, not a true Fibinacci sequence), and then 61.8%-ville.

      If you really want to wrack your brain you can refer to the MACD that is often a predictor of bull / bear movements. Having the MACD 12 EMA cross over the 26 EMA signals a bull market condition. We are looking at that condition. Exponential Moving Average basically gives more importance to recent days, than historical days in the range. If you want to know what price target is needed to acheive a crossover, you're going to need to do some math, or just look for 1.96 Monday ;)

    • Wow, that is the worst post Tinkerbell has ever written and that is saying something. Amazingly bad analysis and advice.

      Sentiment: Sell

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