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BIOLASE, Inc. Message Board

  • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Nov 12, 2013 10:32 AM Flag

    Bad Quarter

    The first real miss since 2010, guidance for the year has been reduced, WallachBeth just cut their target for BIOL, and March could bring more dilution. A normal person would look for the exits.

    While they're looking for a way out, I'm busy looking for a way in, I still like the stock in the upper 4's in light of everything we heard yesterday. This is the point were the numbers guys and the business guys part ways. I see a committed management team, still building necessary key components of the business to be a one-stop dental shop; yesterday announcing Galaxy BioMill.

    I really wanted consistent performance from the quarter, everyone did. The truth is, that it's difficult to implement "global" strategies, and then measure them with "local" metrics. A microcap selling high value / low volume products isn't going to fit perfectly in to the mold. Numbers won't be as smooth as low value / high volume operations like counting hours on stamping equipment, and molding machines, or listener hours, or ad revenues.

    The CEO takes no salary, and receives no compensation. There is no golden parachute for this guy, his success is my success, you gotta like that kind of commitment from leadership. I'm not willing to abandon ship for one poor quarter, especially when I consider that real-world business doesn't always fit in to neatly organized 90 day boxes.

    That's the investor's position, what does the trader have to consider here? How about a tender offer? BIOL is has said all options are on the table for mergers, liquidation of certain assets, buy-out, but are not promising to accept anything if it's not a good enough deal. Even a low-ball 3.50 offer, would make the stock price jump to 3.50 immediately. At that point you have to ask how many shorted shares would choose or be forced to cover?

    You have to make the right choice for your money and timeline, but it's undervalued and I'm picking up some shares here, time will tell if it was a wise move or not...

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    • when will u wake up...the clown ceo is running this cos into ground...he cant run hot dog stand....get him out then u have a company

    • Cow, i'll give you credit for recognizing the 3Q miss. As LFTB called you out on here, it must be only those near misses that have caused the stock to slide this year. Perhaps, you might want to redefine what constitutes a quarterly miss. Bash me all you want, but here's a few observations that make BIOL a huge risk going forward. There will be no low-ball offer of 3.50 coming. Obamacare worries will continue to sideline large dental purchases. Dentists will be reluctant to purchase from a company that remains close to insolvency. Adding unproven new products, that are going to burn even more cash, come with no guarantees of success. In the near term I don't see any upside for BIOL. Looking to the months ahead, it might be worth trying a speculative short term play. I'd like to see a few more dimes shaved off the stock first.

    • Cowbell tells us it was the " first real miss since 2010." Really? What about 1Q13 and 2Q13. One could argue 1Q13 as being close, but 2Q13 was horrid.

      The question is, "Is Biolase the growth company Cowbell told us, or is it the stumble bumbling burn $1M a quarter for a decade company I told you it was.

      I think that question has been answered. $1.50, sadly for the longs, I don't think that's the bottom.

      Sentiment: Sell

      • 1 Reply to lookingforatenbagger
      • What continues to baffle me about BIOL is the dedication LONGS have regardless of the poor performance.
        Once again, we are hearing the future is brighter because changes have been made that will work this time, management is really trying, the recent poor performance was due to events beyond their control, the products are fantastic, etc. Because of this ability to rationalize and stay so positive there is an embedded demand for the shares.
        I have said it before, maybe BIOL is a bad investment on its own merit but it might be a good investment in the crazed LONGs that are so infatuated with the company. Who am I to argue with idiots?
        sigh

    • ucisee@gmail.com ucisee Nov 12, 2013 10:50 AM Flag

      Fair assessment, but I do not believe their new product line is going to make an impact.

      I still believe in their dental technology and this is where the focus should be of the company.

      • 1 Reply to ucisee
      • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Nov 12, 2013 11:10 AM Flag

        I think it can be difficult to pull out metrics the way analysts want to, it's not a linear equation. By that, I mean contributions to the bottom line may not have a definitive trail. Someone might look at a component of the business and conclude that X amount of units sold made X contribution to the bottom line while ignoring the peripheral effects, for example we know imaging is a "foot in the door" product, and it would be wrong to only consider the value of imaging based on imaging sales, when it also could have contributed to core sales in a non-trackable way. The greater the product and service base is, the greater the chances are to make a sale. Steak might be the core menu item, but offering fries and a drink with that can only make it better.

        It's crucial here to keep plugging away, if building a brand, and changing the world were easy, everyone would do it. It's hard thankless work, but I'm interested in doing my part as an investor, and while I'm not thrilled with performance right here, I'm also not willing to throw the company under the bus, I like the products, and the people, I know they're all working hard, and I want to see them succeed.

    • is not that march could bring more dilution it WILL bring more. banks requirement. " Borrower shall receive New Equity totaling at least $3,000,000.00 after November 8, 2013, and before March 1, 2014." again in the Nov. credit line amendment.

 
BIOL
2.500.00(-0.02%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT