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F5 Networks, Inc. Message Board

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  • runlong_1999 runlong_1999 Mar 17, 2000 12:11 PM Flag

    JDSU anyone

    cchamb, I understand your points. I'm quite sure
    JDSU, like all the tech highfliers, is indeed being
    swept up in the frenzy.

    It's tough to justify
    any valuations using absolute terms, even Cisco's. In
    my opinion, all you can do is evaluate companies on
    a relative basis. When I look at the 40 or so tech
    stock highfliers that I follow closely, I see JDSU as
    having at least the best chance to someday do what needs
    to be done to justify its valuations. I don't think
    anyone can determine a mathematical target at this
    point.

    Right or wrong, the market is awarding higher multiples
    to the newcomers, and not just relative to the old
    economy stocks but even to the "old" tech giants like
    Intel, Cisco, and Microsoft. Is it justifiable?
    Certainly not under any historical theories.

    As a
    long time investor and an accountant for many years, I
    a a researcher and analyzer at heart. I sometimes
    long for the days when you actually needed to be smart
    and do research and apply valuation techniques. But
    the reality of today's world is that as more and more
    "little guys" come into the world of investing, the
    intelligence/knowledge per investor drops significantly. Yet their
    dollars have just as much impact as ours. If they are
    going to buy, even if their research consisted of
    nothing more than looking at the December issue of Money
    magazine and seeing which stocks returned 800% last year,
    the stocks they buy are going higher. And quite
    frankly, they ain't lookin' at PE's. Unfortunately, this
    behavior has been positively reinforced by resulting in
    spectacular returns.

    I have no illusions about what's
    making these stocks fly. I just hope it continues for a
    few more years. Then I can retire 15 years early and
    not give a damn.

 
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