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F5 Networks, Inc. Message Board

  • jmy_smith jmy_smith Apr 26, 2000 4:14 PM Flag

    FFIV money flowing into ATON, FDRY, ARP

    F5 lost horribly today, -14.5 on 7.5 million
    volume. People are starting to realize that a PC
    appliance solution simply will not
    cut it in the long
    run. They have to move to chasis based solutions in
    order to get the line-speed performance and scalability
    offered by other vendors. We can start to see that trend
    from the small revenue growth this quarter and in the
    future when compared to competitors.

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    • nice day today looks like we are getting back to normal stock movement.

    • Why would company's like Dell, Exodus,
      Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft.... choose f5's products over Alteon's
      if ATON had a better product? I have nothing against
      Alteon and in fact I think they are a great company but
      if the "big boys" are choosing f5 I don't see how
      ATON will be able to grow at the same pace. In
      addition, if you look at f5's sequential growth until this
      particular quarter it has been far superior to ATON and who
      is to say it will not be in the future. Will ATON be
      able to maintain their growth rate 2 or 3 quarters out
      or will their revenue slow a bit as f5's has? If you
      had forecast f5's eps would simply be in-line with
      expectations this quarter I dont think that any f5 investor
      would have accepted that. However, f5's management
      realized that they better spend some more $$$ on sales &
      marketing to boost future business as ATON is currently
      doing. Otherwise f5 could have posted over $.30/share
      and blown estimates away but chose a more
      conservative approach. What is to say that once ATON becomes
      profitable next quarter they have difficulty growing at the
      same pace or God forbid even slow down as it appears
      f5 has? What happens to f5's growth rate when DELL &
      others begins to resell it's products? I think we both
      know that answer and that is why f5's management
      actually increased their growth rate estimated in the
      CC(from 10% to 13-16% sequentially quarter to quarter).
      Granted ATON's management has a higher estimate for
      growth but that does not mean anything at this point and
      could actually come back to haunt them if they begin to
      slow in the future. Everything considered, you cannot
      honestly tell me that you think ATON is currently worth
      2.5 times that of FFIV can you? Assuming outstanding
      shares were equal, lets say you had to pay $50 for FFIV
      stock per share that is the equivalent of paying $125
      for ATON stock per share(that is ludicrous)! If you
      don't feel comfortable buying f5 at these levels I do
      not know how you could possibly justify buying either
      ATON or ARPT at their currrent valuations. I am not
      saying that ATON is necesarily overvalued but yet FFIV
      is extremely undervalued in comparison. I hope both
      companies do well and am sure that eventually this value
      discrepency will work itself out.

    • For FFIV sake, I hope their revenue from other
      resellers kick in and raise their revenue substantially
      next quarter. Their time is getting short, with
      competitors hot on their heels. It is very likely that ATON
      and others also experienced a dramatic increase in
      sales in the month of march, carrying forward into next
      quarter.

      After January's blowout FFIV quarter,
      people had high expectations for this quarter. The
      drastic decline in price over past few months also had
      people praying for spectacular figures. After seeing
      ATON and FDRY's results, F5 was a big disappointment
      this quarter.

    • You may be correct however f5 is conservitive in
      their guidance. Last quarter they grew 23%, their
      guidance was for 10%. This quarter guidance upped to low
      to mid teens so we can ecpect better growth this
      quarter. Also if you listened to the conference call you
      would know that this past quarter's revenue was equally
      split between jan-feb and march, thus march was close
      to 12 million revenue, and they stated that is
      continuing into this quarter, thus it may be possible for a
      30 plus million quarter if demand continues, 36
      million if the demand continues on current rate.

    • Im a girl. Funny to be called a "bud" but thanks.
      And i can read the numbers for last year and next
      year. Zacks has them also. I still think FFIV will
      outgrow ATON in the next 5 years i said....so quoting me
      next quarter or last year to say im wrong doesnt mean
      much. appples to apples. Im keeping my FFIV here. I
      dont see it as dead money. Our sector will catch on
      one dead and ill be here when it does. And yes any
      "idiot" can see they will achieve that growth in the next
      couple of quarters (and then some..is it necessary to
      call me names?) what i said was that they will still
      be growing earnings at 50% 5 years from now. This is
      just a projection...i didnt say was the only forecast.
      I can go read a couple of others if i need to...but
      you seem to have so completely missed my point why
      bother.

      fire (f/florida) (i.e. not your bud)

    • uarter, but rather examining last quarter's
      performance, this quarter's performance, and guidance for
      future quarters. FFIV had 2 million revenue more last
      quarter than ATON. This quarter ATON have 5 million more
      than FFIV. In the future FFIV gave a guidance of low
      teens while ATON touts minimum of 25% growth
      sequentially.

      By all signs and indications, ATON have
      much better revenue this quarter and will widen the
      revenue lead with FFIV in the future.

    • <EOM>

    • Don't worry. Have a nice weekend.f

    • longs. At some point, even the biggest, hardest and worst rim job has to end. I think we've reached this point.

      Still sore but glad it's almost over. LOL.

    • S&P has a five year "annual" growth rate for aton at 38% and 77% for ffiv.

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