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Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. Message Board

  • mfk2680 mfk2680 Jan 24, 2007 4:32 PM Flag

    Why aren't the shorts covering?

    Why aren't the shorts covering? Doesn't that make you nervous.. The nasdaq is up 1.5% and JOE goes nowhere..earnings should meet and possibly beat expectations and JOE goes nowhere...something is funny the past week and a half low wolume and no upward price movement with the nasdaq moving up and too much downward price movement when the nadaq falls???

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    • why should earnings exceed expections? josb had big markdowns during the holiday season.

    • Duly,
      FYI, on 11/20/06 all lawsuits pending in the US District Court for the District of Marylandwere consolidated into one. The Massachusetts Labor Annuity Fund was appointed lead plaintiff, and the law firm of Lerach Coughlin Stoia Geller Rudman & Robbins, LLP was appointed as lead counsel in the consolidated action. You are correct about the timing: Getting to the merits of the case (whether there is sufficient evidence of a violation of the securities laws to let the case go to a jury) likely will take years. Lots of legal fees generated, in the end, nothing for the shareholders.

    • Thanx, WT.
      No, I didn't feel I needed to read that entire article, as I suspect the entire issue is unresolvable, in court or out.
      I'm sure you know,even when these lawsuits have merit they can take years to resolve, so it's no surprise the suit appears to have faded away. BTW: If the company agrees to ANY settlement, the result will probably make an important impression on the bottomline some quarter, providing a little extra grist for shorts to hang on.

      Perhaps only Wildrick knows or will know for sure whether he timed his options to take upcoming performance into account.
      Some suspect he did. Anyway, this "news" reminded me that his options activity definitely contributed to the pain, IMO.

      To better days.

    • If you read the article carefully, "early exercise" means an option exercise "earlier than projected" by a "mathematical model" created by an outfit called Gradient. Gradient contends that its model reflects when insiders "might normally" exercise options. "Gradient's research on exercise decisions is based on mathematical forecasts looking at when insiders might normally want to unload some options, factoring in sales to diversify a portfolio or because of a run-up in the share price."

      Since Wildrick's automatic sales (option exercises followed by sales) were triggered by JOSB's run-up in share price beginning in early 2006, applying Gradient's own criteria, it makes no sense to call these sales "earlier" than projected. I think these Gradient guys are just a bunch of professors trying to get published and their mathematical model is predictive of nothing.

      By the way, notice how the lawsuits seem to have faded into oblivion?

    • Duly,

      All of that story related to JOE is OLD news (a year old at this point) and really has nothing to do with why the stock price is where it is today (i.e., Q1.2006 earnings shortfall and related Management credibility to deliver). Wildrick's sales were auto triggered by the stock trading above $50/share (pre 5 for 4 dividend; $40/share post dividend) which started in 12/2005 and continued until all options were exercised in early 03/2006; exercising options early means nothing to the decision to exercise them.

    • Why indeed.

      <At Jos A. Bank, Gradient reported on March 13 that a resurgence of early exercise of deep-in-the-money options might indicate heightened risk of underperformance. At the time, shares traded at about $44. They were down to about $28 six months later and closed on Thursday at $30.37.
      Neither Red Hat nor Jos A. Bank immediately responded to requests for comment.>

      I thought all those options were Way pre-scheduled.
      Were they exercised early? and man does THAT bring back not-so-fond memories of the insult-to-injury law suit filings following Q1.
      I keep getting jolted back to the fact that there was nothing normal, as in mere "bump in the road", about that horrible fiasco. It keeps me sombre.

    • Thank you! Much obliged for the information.

    • Most retailers release sales data at the same time each month; JOE is part of that group. Good or bad sales results, it ALWAYS releases its data at 5:00 AM ET on the Thursday after the month end which is ALWAYS on a Saturday.

      By and large, retailers utilize what is called a "52-53 week year", as opposed to a calendar or other end of the month fiscal year. For retailers, most years have 52 weeks in it, but similar to leap year, every so often the 53 week year occurs...the "year" that is about to end is one of those. As a result, JOE's year will end not tomorrow (01/27/2007) as it would if this was a 52 week year, but rather on 02/03/2007 since this is a 53 week year. Therefore, JOE's sales data will be released on the Thursday after 02/03/2007 (the end of JOE's year) which is 02/08/2007. Follow???

    • There is no good reason to cover your short now! The market could settle back into a correction which helps the shorts.
      On the other hand there is no positive news to buy the stock now! Ergo no interest and low volume. But, AH...lets have some positive same store sales next week to pique the curiosity of a few interested institutional buyers. A little buying will take us out of this $30 - $32 range and you should see some of the shorts covering creating further trading interest and an upward move. Great company selling a great product at a great price. What more could you want?

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