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SodaStream International Ltd. Message Board

  • tigerpac tigerpac Mar 3, 2011 9:15 AM Flag

    Installed Base

    I'm surprised that no one of this board can give me a worldwide installed base of machines.

    Nor does the company list that base anywhere in it's PR or earnings reports and declines to answer that when I called IR.

    Could the reason be that the ratio of cartridge refills to the installed base keeps shrinking rapidly every quarter?

    Hmm....this is last piece of info I need to make an investment decision and it's the most critical piece.

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    • I am neither.

      <You are either a short or a person who wants to go long and wants to get challenged to feel comfortable to go into the stock.>

      Yes, that is a given. Tell me something I don't know.

      <GMCR breaks even on almost every single Keurig machine sold.>

      Good point. Read that in the prospectus.

      <Margins vary on machines as in some of the 39 markets, they use distributors. In other markets, they utilize direct distribution. In the U.S. they do direct shipping from Sodastream to vendors.>

      I have not read this or seen the margin posted anywhere. Could you provide me and the board a link to management's comments on machine margin.

      <Unlike GMCR, Soda makes good margins on machines.>

      Thank you.

    • Empty calories then...they rely solely on the consumables. Good to know.

      I don't follow GMCR too closely, so thanks for the update.

    • GMCR still sells almost all their Keurig machines at cost. They break even on the machines and make nice money on the K-cups.

    • On that note: I would be FAR more concerned about this weekend.

    • You want us to do your homework for you, huh?

      Did you even attempt to read the prospectus?

      4 million is your answer.

      Here is my advice to you. Read the prospectus, watch all the archived videos of his presentations, all the videos of his appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg, and all the filings.

      This stock is a no brainer at this level. I loaded up big at $39 to $41.

      When the market correction fear is gone and other upgrades come in, this will stabilize in the $43 to $45 range.

      Growth in the U.S. is amazing. If it continues, this stock will be trading in the $65 range within 1 year from now.

      • 1 Reply to tradeontrends
      • I appreciate the quick response.

        However, from the prospectus:

        "Based on consumer surveys and sales of CO2 refills, we estimate there are 4 million consumers who create a carbonated beverage using our system every two weeks".

        Closer to what I we know there were at 4MM machine out there at the IPO time...I think SODA had sold another 1.1 - 1.2 million units in the past two quarters. I wonder how many machines above the 4MM were not being used every two weeks?

        My point is that the cartridge refills are slowing in terms of unit growth. If you add a 1.2 million unit sales in machines but your cartridge refills are staying the same from quarter to quarter (on a sequential basis) than the amount of time it takes to use a cartridge is slowing down considerably or just maybe consumers are no longer using the machine past the initial few months.

        Food for thought. If SodaStream can increase the price of the refill, that would be a way to increase revenues. Transportation costs (in the form of higher oil prices) have to be going higher since this is a worldwide product.

        Fundamental analysis of the company is far different than just trading the stock. I lot of you are in the stock just based on the momo and could care less about the underlying fundamentals. And I can't blame you. That's just your choice.

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