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SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA) Message Board

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  • tigerpac tigerpac Mar 3, 2011 1:09 PM Flag

    Installed Base

    If you use the information provided in the two earning reports since the IPO you can chart sales for both the machine and cartridges. Since SodaStream has provided annual totals for 2009 and 2010 without providing Q1 and Q2 numbers for either year, assumptions are made for those quarters in this spreadsheet just to get the sum of the quarter totals to equal the annual total provided. The easiest way, but probably not the correct way was just split the two quarters in half. Ideally Q2 will be larger than Q1 but since exact numbers aren't known, it was easier to do it this way.

    Date Machines CO2 Refiils
    4/2010 712,000 2,500,000
    3/2010 449,000 2,600,000
    2/2010 381,000 2,450,000
    1/2010 380,000 2,450,000

    2010 Total 1,922,000 9,800,000

    4/2009 385,000 2,100,000
    3/2009 285,000 2,100,000
    2/2009 194,000 2,000,000
    1/2009 193,000 2,000,000

    2009 Total 1,051,000 8,200,000

    So you have added 1.922 million machines in 2010 to the installed total but cartridge sales have gone up only 1,600,000 million units.

    The chart indicates that the company has to wait a year for cartridge sales to bump up 20%. The trend is right in front of your eyes.Machine sales are increasing rapidly (60-80%) but cartridge refills are increasing only 20%.

    I understand that there is typically a one quarter lag for cartridge refills as a cartridge is included in the machine purchase. The company also says that seasonality plays a part because consumers will normally be bigger users during the hotter months but the numbers don't seem to reflect this.

    IMO,not your typical razor/razor blade growth company. Compare that to Green Mountain where both brewer and k-cup sales are BOTH increasing 70%.

    Are there knockoff companies who are providing CO2 refills that are stealing some of SodaStream's business? That refill % should be much higher than 20%.

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    • I've added 2007 and 2008 figures below as they were mentioned in the prospectus:

      Date Machines CO2 Refiils
      4/2010 712,000 2,500,000
      3/2010 449,000 2,600,000
      2/2010 381,000 2,450,000
      1/2010 380,000 2,450,000

      2010 Total 1,922,000 9,800,000

      4/2009 385,000 2,100,000
      3/2009 285,000 2,100,000
      2/2009 194,000 2,000,000
      1/2009 193,000 2,000,000

      2009 Total 1,051,000 8,200,000

      2008 Total 877,000 7,496,000

      2007 Total 730,000 7,364,000

      The overall growth of cartridges since 2007 is not that stunning.

      I could not find the gross margin % of the soda machines. So if SODA does makes money on the machines (10%??), then yes, the model would be slightly different from GMCR.

    • NOTE: GMRC was not always this way. They sold their machines AT COST when they were at the same point as SodaStream is today.

      That is a positive for SODA.

 
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