A couple of points on the # of DOORS:
- # of doors does not indicate product (and margin) mix of sales
- # of doors does not indicate shelf space dedicated to product in stores (rule of thumb = if a products gets a 50% increase in shelf space - its sales go up 50%)
- # of doors does not indicate number of end caps a product may get in a time period
- # of doors does not indicate promotional activity such as fliers, product demo's, coupons, etc. (targeted consumer spending) or the timing of those events
- # of stores does not indicate shelf position (EX: eye level better than next to floor)
- # of stores does not indicate competitor activity (;-)) really does SODA have a competitor?)
- # of stores does not indicate the effect of (in store) shelf signage.
- # of stores does not indicate effect of new products (flavors, machines etc.)
- # of stores does not indicate the "quality" of the retailer. (some sell more product than others)
- # of stores does not indicate the effect of publicity. NEVER underestimate the value of a 3rd party endorsement. I have seen product sales double because of this (EX - Oprah says a product is good!)
Seth, I am sure, looks at MANY of these issues when he does his forecasts. It would be bad analysis to place too much emphasis on store count alone. It has been clear to me Sethy has been a few steps ahead of some analysts in this area.
That said - I remain AMAZED at SODA's ability as a small company to enter many markets (store counts) around the world in a short period of time!!!! This is HIGHLY unusual. The logistics, and demographic concerns alone are major hurdles. This CEO has a sixth sense.
Well said Dprofiteer, well said! Yes I do, we do. In our last quarterly preview we discussed shelf space in broad detail. Yes, you are also correct on product mix and doors. For example: Soda will benefit in growing sales per door at BBY and KSS during the 1st quarter and second quarter just by these companies offering the gas exchange now and additional flavors. Staples in UK is now doing the exchange where they weren't up until this quarter. The Source is now available at Harvey Norman in Australia where it wasn't before et cetera. Simple change in product mix adds dollars. End caps: Leading up to Father's Day both Target, WMT, BBY and Krogers had SodaStream end-caps. Last year only WMT had the end cap. Definitely has to be considered in my opinion as well.