What are the Soda Revenues for Home Consumption Worldwide?
Conservatively speaking is it feasible to believe that Sodastrem in say 4 years could capture 4% of the worlds' market for soda that would be consumed at home? If that is a fair assumption what would that translate into revenues.?To me this is a good way of looking at the company as a long term investment rather than worrying about these short term stock price gyrations that can cause some to panic. Any thoughts?
Depending on source, the market is about 500 billion worldwide. Its easy to conclude it is higher depending on source and factors used.
Your 4% translates to 20 billion/ year. Current sales will also vary, depending if you use ttm, or ftm.
However if you want an approximate, SODA would easily be well over 100 times todays size. If this were to happen, the stock would probably go up 200 times todays price on multiple expansion and economies of scale.
What most miss, including analysts:
- the longer term size potential
- SODA already is swinging above its weight in entering countries around the globe.
- First to market advantage
- Value of partnerships long term - branding, retail, supplier and distributor partners.
Shorts can only play with this for so long - and they know it.
Don't know about your longterm assumption but what baffles me is shorterm revenue growth is expected to grow at a 30% rate for this qtr and next qtr and the entire 2013 year. Based on execution so far you probably can take that growth to the bank. Now if you look at the 2014 revenue growth it goes down to 18% growth. This projection is from the analysts. They are delinquent in looking at updating their 2014 projections. I don't believe anyone including the analysts believe Soda's growth will deteriate down to only an 18% revenue growth. Once the analysts will project what they really believe 2014 numbers will be I believe our stock price will rise accordingly.
thanks for your comments. very informative and I am sure serious investors in the company appreciate that. As far as 2014 revenue growth predications of 12% drop (from 30% to 18%), I do not agree. These analysts have never been right about anything. They are Johnny come late lies They do not take into account possible nationwide supermarkets agreements with all the major players and what that can translate into revenue growth; they do not take into account possible growth opportunities in Brazil and India. Theses analysts never took into consideration the growth potential of Wal-Mart and let's not forget that Wal-Mart is in a number of foreign countries so Sodastream can be marketed in these countries through Wal-Mart . And let's not forget Whole Foods that has just begun marketing Sodastream in some of their stores state side.
Sodastream's future ad campaign may target sports fans internationally via billboard's displaying the Sodastream logo in soccer stadiums worldwide. Soccer had a worldwide audience that exceeds over a billion people and their stadiums would be a great place to get soccer fans to know about the product. What I am trying to see is that the potential for this company is enormous if investors have the patience to wait for good things to happen.