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SodaStream International Ltd. Message Board

  • videofunder videofunder Oct 24, 2013 9:19 PM Flag

    seth - now I'm really worried

    We all had a nice dialogue on what you meant by you are encouraged, are you nervous short term for this quarter??? Anyway, you didn't come and post to clear it I was hoping. We have all come to trust you and look forward to you setting the board straight...pls seth, help!!!

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    • goldenseth Oct 24, 2013 9:50 PM Flag

      Forgive me, but commenting on anything short term and in this forum is more a kin to making a prediction or a trading call and I don't make those kind of comments here nor would I be able to. This is why I generally only discuss points of analysis, update as to operational acheivements and the like. I always view SODA as a long term investment because the fundamentals are just too strong and barriers to entry are just too high for competitors to scale. SODA owns the market it participates within and where there is little to no competition, one should look to the competancy of the management team and I would think their accomplishments speak for themself. Do I expect a strong quarter based on the data at hand, yes. Having said that, data can't quantify unforeseen obstacles like last year's shipping issue. From one quarter to the next quarter, and with so many different metrics it is easy to pick on one, but inevitably the earnings continue to rise and the PPS does always catch up with the EPS; this is why I tend to focus on the long term and those very strong fundamentals which make SODA so very unique and probably somewhat misunderstood by a good many people.

      Nothing from our meeting this past weekend discouraged me and if anything it encouraged me about what will likely come in Q1 of 2014. All the information will be included in the Quarterly Preview, all my projections for the quarter, all my teams data for the quarter, all my analysis of operational activities, competition, shelf space retail partners, regional updates, channel check data, new product planning insights and cadence of product roll-outs and a lot more. Probably 13 pages worth vs last quarters 10 pages, learned a lot in Israel at the plant.

      • 2 Replies to goldenseth
      • Seth, thank you!!! sorry for being such a nervous nelly, you are right, I have too heavily weighted in SODA, but last quarter I chickened out and lightened my position day of earnings release and missed out...sigh. Not sure what I'll do this time but thanks again for all your insights!!!

      • goldenseth Oct 24, 2013 10:10 PM Flag

        I'm sure you value your SODA position considerably. A position in SODA should not make an individual uncomfortable to such a degree. Make some decisions regarding your position that will make you more comfortable and less nervous about next Wednesday. I've had many a conversation with SODA participants whom I've openly suggested that the stock may not be suited for their individual risk tolerance or fit their investing timeline. Netflix is a great stock, but I can't. Touch it, doesn't fit my risk tolerance when I weigh the fundamentals against the PE. But SODA does fit all my requirements for an investment so I continue to hold my shares and trade around a core position. Bottomline for me is seeing what the retailers are doing and what I believe we can all agree on is that they are all adding more SODA shelf space and more skus YOY. I think Daniel is best known for saying "They all want us, but we have to pick the best stores to go into and at the right time ; we're building this for the future not the short run ". So I lean on Daniel's statement of fact and build my investment for the future. Good luck Video and don't let SODA keep you up at night, management should be the only one's keeping long hours.

    • Hey Video, Don't panic. Remember Seth is obligated to put his clients first, not this board. If you thought something was going to pop, would you tell everyone or work to get your clients in at the best value?

      Sentiment: Buy

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