Let's see. 1B Sales at 15%-18% PROFIT margin give us 150M-180M profit. At $150 per share give us $3B market cap. We will have a PE from 20 to 16.7 corresponding $150M to $180M profit.
Our current profit margin is 9.27% and PE is 23 trailing and 16 forward. Two questions need to be answered. First, how achievable is the margin increase?. Second, whether the market will give SODA 16.7 to 20 PE? There are two legitimate concerns with SODA. One is if it is a fad? The other is more subtle and implicit: weather the management and a foreign company is trust-worthy? If the management are crooks, all bets are off. If we can trust the management, the sales will let us know if SODA is a fad. I personally do not think it is a fad. The chance of the management is crooks is low. I hope the market will eventually see those too.
TAke your what if one step farther. assuming your numbers you would think this company at the present price would be a bargain for someone who wanted to take over Soda. Buy on the cheap now instead of waiting later.
we will have a good laugh because it will be gone in 2-3 years... as in out of business... we will laugh at how silly we were for not taking the money and running at this gift of a price at $52 a share!