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SodaStream International Ltd. Message Board

  • lacunaspy lacunaspy Dec 19, 2013 2:48 PM Flag

    Short Squeeze?

    Can someone please explain why some analysts have postulated that the professional shorts in SODA are immune to a short squeeze. It has been said that the squeeze could never happen. Anybody know why?
    Does any one have any references that would explain? Many thanks. And all please have a fabulous holiday season.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Can we all agree here that what matters the most BY FAR is the company's performance and fundamentals? The SP will follow regardless in time. If someone is investing in SODA with the expectations of a short squeeze, they're in it for the wrong reasons anyway. That would be like going to a baseball game with the expectations of catching a home run ball. Just enjoy the game. We'll all be big winners in time.

    • Because if the Shorts are Coke and Pepsi in disguise they never will have to cover..
      They love trying to control the stock action by shorting over half of the shares as a way to scare investors
      from buying shares...or having the power to manipulate the shares downward...Just an idea why there does not seem to be any short squeezes happening...and than again the Coke / Pepsi buy out rumor had the squeeze at $100.00 pre- market back when...any comments...

    • I think that some of the large institutions locked in profits two years ago by shorting when SODA was very high, $70s. They can ride it down and cover and make profits with a zero risk on their short because they own the stock. Worst case is a buyout at say $100+and they just cover with their $70 shares. I'm talking about several million shares that were shorted in 2011 around August -Oct. Therefore, these guys can't be squeezed out.

    • No one is immune to short squeeze. Theoretically, the upside of short is 100% and the down side is unlimited. The professionals can use options to make the unlimited risk limited. So far, some people are 'lucky' because Soda does not have 'overwhelming' numbers. If the value become too obvious, they may be in trouble. Remember Volkswagen became the world most valuable company during the financial crisis because of short squeeze, The chart was spectacular. If we longs are right, the shorts will help the fasten the price discovery process. There might be slight possibility that they are right, SODA is a fad. Well, I am in trouble then. LOL

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to alking01
      • maxpain52 Dec 19, 2013 6:51 PM Flag

        I would say that if you are making an argument that says being lucky is involved you have basically validate the opposing opinion. Then you used an auto maker in comparison with a soda maker. I gave my opinion, but for others I think you are still not giving recognition to the obvious things that keep the pe below where it should be and keep short interest high at all times. 2011, 2012 and 2013, never dipped below 30% short interest. Giving examples of car companies or any other company that isn't a soda maker company is void IMHO. Why because that is exactly one reason that some of the short interest will never need to be forced to cover. This is a soda maker company and as long as it is there were always be a high short interest. I bet the shorts are already thinking of excuses to drive the price down from higher levels next year. Please don't attack my response I am just give my thoughts which fit with the stock allocation.

      • FINALLY. Alking1 gets it.

        2013 had no squeeze because of underwhelming results (by the streets point of view, not mine). SODA Investors need to understand that things can be un-recognized for months, years, etc. Doesnt mean your right or wrong. FB was at 25 for awhile. Its now at 55. Investors can be very wrong and most of the time are. (my opinion)

        2014 seems to be looking much better for US Sales. Most important market. At some point the value may get too great for investors to continue to avoid. When does that happen? I have no clue where we go, but things can reach a tipping point. Q4 2013...2014?

        Lastly, as someone that has shorted many stocks, you dont need to cover at a loss. Many shorts cover to lock in a gain (thats the hope right?). If you're up 20% and stock rises 8%, you've lost your gains, In that case, you may cover (ie BUY the stock)- SODA has 8 million buyers each and every day. VERY high demand when only 21 million shares are outstanding.

        Tiger Global 13G would be nice for starters

        Good Luck.

    • Options......

      • 2 Replies to drjohnlong
      • nothing to do with options. Seriously. TSLA was highly shorted and options traders were also in puts. Doesnt protect you. squeezes are result of supply/demand. If demand grows too the extent that 5 million shares (large buyers) begin to accumulate in a short period (days), then the shorts will get crushed.

        SODA can squeeze. Do I expect it today or tomorrow. No. Stock needs a material event. Shares around all time highs. 70+. Stock has many factors in its favor but WS doesnt believe in the LONG term business yet.

        If that happens...anything can happen. GL

      • maxpain52 Dec 19, 2013 4:04 PM Flag

        You hit it right on, the greatest open interst is in 52.50-55 range. So maybe your short and get put the stock at $57 or $58. Big deal! So then you ride that with the longs. Too easy.

    • I'm just ordinary uninformed investor but look at P/E. From my view if the stock goes due to short squeeze to e.g. 150$, P/E will be low and many new shorts will be opened again. It seems logical to me

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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