Meh, all pretty arbitrary. This move is way overdone. Funny how people start to say, oh the market is really selling off, this must mean there is really something wrong! Selling sometimes just begets more selling… A joke really. Nothing is different from two weeks ago and the S&P is off 5%… Way more interested in what happens to the data over the next six months, not how many traders are wetting themselves over momentum and a data point or two...
I hate to say this, but the market is a market of stocks. That's why it actually tells us things. If the president has a heart attack and the market falls for a day or two, that is selling based on pure emotion. However, when the market makes a significant move over an extended period of time, that means that something more than emotion is taking over. If we're lucky, this is just a small retracement.
However, it could be that something is amiss fundamentally. Christmas wasn't good, maybe not even okay. There are some sentiment indicators that look like sheet.
The recovery began in early 2009, about 5 years ago. We shouldn't be surpassed , given this administration, that the recovery has been lousy and then maybe it's time for another recession. I doubt it will be as bad as the last, but that's my guess as to what's going on.
I honestly hope I'm wrong.
I respectfully disagree.In those two weeks, technical damage has been done to the indices and all data points down.That said, it can turn around tomorrow.I don't think that will happen, but it wouldn't shock me.My data says the ODDS are further deterioration(the extent of which is IMPOSSIBLE to predict IMO)..It's only odds though.No guarantees except death, taxes and nagging:) Further, macro data has been almost uniformly #$%$ IMO which IS consistent with my view of the domestic and global economy.Of course, I could be wrong.Best of luck to you-and all of us for that matter.
P.S.-The Fed is BOXED in IMO-added issue.Also, Obamacare might disrupt the market depending on how it evolves.I'm not a fan:).Anyway, GL to you Sir.