As we well know with SODA, perception drives sentiment. One of the perceptions out there is that as machine sales go...so does SODA's future. As noted in Seth's Q2 wrap-up, SODA is continuing to secure new partnerships, many of them hardware. (Soda machines powered by SodaStream - example KitchenAid) As more and more hardware partners are established, it goes greatly overlooked that:
1. These will not show up in total machine sales, adversely affecting YOY comps.
2. Feed into perceptions that SODA is not growing although record consumable numbers continue to shine
3. Anytime one of these Partner, non-SODA, machines are purchased, a SODA consumables customer is established.
Partner machines, Samsung refrigerators, future refrigerator partners, all of which will erode SODA machine sales, but absolutely feed into high margin consumable sales while growing the category in kind. For this reason, I contend that machine sales go-forward simply cannot be the best barometer of growth. We (most notably analysts) have to keep the focus on consumables. GL
Great point. Does anyone have any idea how many new "points of consumption" have been produced by refrig's, partner machines, etc.? In other words...how many refrig/partner machines have been initially installed by a SODA co2 cartridge and ultimately sold to an end consumer? Any way to get these types of numbers?
Excellent point Papa. Plus, unused machines will be sold on eBay etc... to find new homes where they will be put to use. So, even though there is churn, there will always be uncounted new users created.