If ARG fails in keeping the poison pill, APD can begin a tender for the shares at $70. If not enough shareholders tender, APD will need to raise their offer or walk away.
However, the hearing is set for Jan 25 and APD has said their $70 offer expires on Jan 14.
This is a real game of chicken. ARG must believe they can keep the poison pill and holdout for a higher offer. APD believes they will succeed but are trying to get ARG management to move before the trial.
Chandler would be pleased to see this trial go away. If I am not mistaken, he has indicated he is frustrated by ARG and their delay tactics around the annual meeting - this is a simple issue and annual meetings are set to be annual and proxy voting shall take place by SEC rules in appropriate fashion. ARG will lose on this aspect if I read Chandler right - he doesn't mince words on the basic facts. Read some of his prior history in the DOW-ROH case which never made it to trial.
This stock has been trading quite a bit since the $65.50 offer and spent much of it above that price and even some time slightly above $70. The fact that the price traded that high must mean that many investors thought the bid would go higher. Additionally, there will be a reduction in trade price to reflect the closing date of a transaction - which, in this case, is not set with a non-willing party but is obviously a ways out in the time spectrum.
APD also looks silly since the S&P is up 15+% since the $65.50 offer - they are offering an ~7% price increase to $70. 15% is $75+ - This would seem to be fair just to bring them in line with their original offer + market appreciation. While APD contends that no other bidders are present for ARG, they shouldn't be allowed to claim a bid made nearly 10 months ago be a full value bid when the market has gone up significantly.
If nothing else, the APD-ARG battle makes for interesting theater.
1) In light of the schedule set by Chancellor Chandler, APD will will extend the tender from 1/14 to allow for the hearing and the ruling. My best guess is that the next extension will be to 1/31. (Btw, this is why those of you with January options -- puts or calls -- saw your premiums collapse on Thursday. There will be no definitive outcome prior to January expiration.)
2) I have some experience with the good Chancellor (I like to call him "Chauncy"), and I am betting that he pressures ARG to negotiate in goof faith with APD under the threat that he would otherwise invalidate the pill.