#1 - There's only a slight chance that the House & Senate & Obama are going to come to terms ... The odds are very high that they intend to go over the cliff and then negotiate a deal, it the only way to get the republicans to bend a little at the same time the democrates get to cut military spending and increase taxes ...
#2 - We are just a few months or less away for Debt Ceiling round 2 ... which is why 'The Cliff' exists in the first place ... which would include another downgrade.
#3 - Now that the election is over the 'Iran Israel' saga is real about to pickup.
All within the next 3 months.
*** Did anyone see the the Initial Claims & even worse the Continuing claims? Brutal numbers sure to drive up the unemployment numbers. ***
*** TVIX about to launch Nov 15 to Dec 15 the 30 day count down. Watch what happens on Monday ... I wouldn't be surprised if we see a 50+ point drop in the S&P. ***
*** The US DEBT is at 16,209,147 ... the Limit is 16,394,000 ... they Fed spent 120bil in Oct that means by year end we will be hitting the Limit. This is a massive problem ***
*** Has anyone noticed Apple is down huge and doesn't seem to be slowing ***
The S&P if everything happens at once will drop bellow 1100 by years end.
If this isn't a time to protect your investments by buying TVIX or a great time to AVERAGE DOWN if you bought TVIX a few months ago.
Cant agree with you more, the world events are getting scary and even a deal , could give us a bounce in the Dow, and then the debt ceiling ?, no a nasty or continual loss is in the cards dont see an 800 point drop but who knows?
Reason why TVIX hasn't kicked up yet is because the fear factor hasn't been reached.
1st - most investors are feeling comfy with there latest profit cushions.
2nd - everyone thinks that the Dem's & Rep's are going to just make a nice deal.
3rd - earnings for and Q3 & Q4 are dropping fast but is going unnoticed.
Wait until after the 'meeting' next week ... Then we'll see how close we really are to deal.
If that deal blows up or negativity comes out of the meeting expect option values to jump, the VIX & TVIX will skyrocket.
+ Debt Ceiling will be reached in January not spring as being reported, the Fed will default in Spring.
With all my respect to you, I think your are dreaming. For the TVIX to bet at $ 5, VIX must jumps to 60 or 80 !! It is not what you are seeing right now. It is just a correction not a bear market. Maybe it'll become a become market but I don't see TVIx going so high with the beta slippage... :(
I know it's hard to see, but the VIX is about to triple ... look back to July 2011 heading into August 2011 ... I feel that's were we are, in the July 2011 month and look what happens in August September & October
Look at July 22 which was the peak of the S&P at 1345 & TVIX was at $16.50 & VIX was at 17.50 by August 22, the TVIV more than tripled to $63.38 and the VIX went to $43
We're talking about the Debt Ceiling & Fiscal Cliff & a War all in one which will lead to a devestating Q4 & Q1 also there's no more Stimulus available from the Fed ... this could get really ugly.
An angry Republican vs a Cocky Democrate playing chicken has high odds of a collision.
Unless they come to terms earlier than later. What are the odds of that happening?