We got news of the best jobless numbers in 5 1/2 years this morning just as the S&P was showing a tremendous triple top formation on the monthly decade long chart, and, oh by the way, this is the month of May -- the classic month for sell-offs. I don't know if this will prove to be the start of a new bear market or a correction to a long running bull market, but the bears are certainly due. The sentiment makes sense for this to be the start of a new long term bear market has the pundits have basically echoes the line that this market can only go up because of the Fed. The fear was completely replaced by unjustifiable complacency and greed, even in the face of obvious economic turmoil on both a global and national scale. The buy the dip pattern was established and applauded. Could this dip be the one that traps so very many innocent retail bulls? Is this dip the Big one -- the one that is actually the plunge off the top, the first hard leg down in a sharp bear market plunge?
Tvixer, it always looks so obvious in hindsight. It's so very hard to play the contrarian at exact tops and bottoms as it takes guts.
That "has" should be "as" in the prior message. "Echoes" should be "echoed." Should have proofread.
Isn't it amazing though, back to talking points now, how for months the opinion has been that the market must rise so long as Ben prints? What a dangerous thesis to hold. A lot of folks who have bought into that thesis are going to get crushed. By the time the pundits agree that we're in a bear market, anyone waiting for confirmation will have totally missed the move.
This time could be THE time that the bear comes out of hibernation......The technicals and fundamentals are bearish... We have a state of overbought and over-hyped markets, which are at or near all time highs, with the VIX very low.