KMB is a steady growth consumer products company that people were pouring into as a bond substitute. It was up roughly 40% in one year and the earnings growth does not support that kind of move. However, as commodity prices come down (and they are) margins will increase over time. i like the businesses that they are in and this fits in nicely with my other personal care/food/medical stocks which do well under most conditions. Toward this end I own: KMB, CL, ABT, FLO & MRK for growth and income and Biotechs for growth. Once this whole Fed driven low rates and unwinding is over with we will go much higher due to low commodity prices across the board. This is what the last 14 years has been all about. Now that investment has poured into commodities since 2000, we will reap the benefits for the next 15 - 20 years. !982 - 2000 had nothing to do with Reagan or Clinton or any politics, but about low commodity prices.
I like your post, but , I don't quite understand your reference to KMB and commodities. Pulp wood is not a commdity, so why the reference to Commodities?
If KMB were in the corn,soybean,gold or oil business, I'd understand your thinking.
No doubt. KMB still has over 4.2% free cash flow at 100 bucks even after being up 40%. You can buy some #$%$ Goldman is selling or stick with quality companies and sleep good at night. KMB is making good inroads into healthcare and that should provide some good growth into the future. Look at how much Buffet paid for Heinz and don't feel bad about buying at 20 times earnings when the long bond is under 2%.