From Conference call 12.19.13 (and my interpretation)
10Qs to be filed in January 2014
EBITDA estimated between $15m-$20m for 2013
Lower than expected EBITDA but company explained they directed $11m into marketing and management initiatives with ROI expected in 2014 and 2015, otherwise EBITDA would have been on track for 10%-30% growth between $30m-$35m.
Outstanding shares approx 380m
2011 EBITDA $9.8m; 2011 ops income $2.5m
2012 EBITDA $28.3m; 2012 ops income $19.1m
If net income were around $24m, at 10x earnings UGHS should trade at $.63
With growing confidence,
15x Earnings, UGHS trades at $.95
20x Earnings, UGHS trades at $1.26
continued acquisitions and cost cutting measures
share buy back program intended for Director and above
still planning for uplift in 2014 to major exchange
Price has dropped since company did not file 10Qs on Nov 16th as it was expected; End of year actions may also have something to do with selling.
2015 EBITDA could vary depending on rollout of 3 new service centers outside Houston (expected roll out in 2015). But there should be enough wiggle room within the year to ensure all three centers are running and profitable for 2016.
Multiples could swing to 20x or 30x earnings depending on aggressiveness and profitability of new acquisitions to support growth.