I think the important thing is to determine where is the overall economy going and with it stock prices. In the long run stock price always follows earnings. Since 1999 we have been trapped in a great commodities bull market. If you look at the charts, the stock market is actually about the same as it was back then where as commodity prices have gone through the roof. This is typical of these long commodity bull markets. The 2007 high was a equity run within an equity bear market. In general when commodity prices are high stocks are low and visa versa. This phenomenon happened 3 times in the 20th century, with commodity bull markets followed by long commodity bear markets.
So, now the question is where are we. Is this move the beginning of a new equity bull market where commodity prices abate. Natural gas is definitely a game changer and can effect the amount of oil we use drastically. In the 1982 - 1999 equity bull market, the Dow index was up over 17X. If you think about that we are talking about getting the Dow 15 or so years from now way over 100,000. In the 20th century those kinds of long term gains happened 3 times, after each of the 3 commodity bull markets.
Think what this would do to this stock, which has been moving into the industrial area. I am less concerned with where we are in a few weeks than where we will be down the road. There is a lot of talk about manufacturing coming back to the US and in particular the chemical industry. Since we are going into the 15th year of elevated commodity prices I think we are close to the end. While many folks are down on everything US, I believe that we may be right around the corner from a great boom.