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Monsanto Company Message Board

  • cal_sunshine2002 cal_sunshine2002 Mar 17, 2009 10:10 PM Flag

    MON 2009 projection

    MON second quarter will be better than the Wall street expectation bacuase of the carry-over from its strong Latin America business and prepayment increase in the US. However, I think the challenge is really the third quarter. US business will be slow, and both corn and soybean price are very low now, farmers will look to reduce their cost which leads to bigger acreage of soybean, which will then result in lower profit margin for MON. I think ethanol subsidies will help corn, but not enough. That 2007 planting peak for corn will be a faded memory for several years.

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    • <MON second quarter will be better than the Wall street expectation bacuase of the carry-over from its strong Latin America business and prepayment increase in the US. However, I think the challenge is really the third quarter. US business will be slow, and both corn and soybean price are very low now, farmers will look to reduce their cost which leads to bigger acreage of soybean, which will then result in lower profit margin for MON.>

      I disagree : farmers have delayed planting and so Q3 March 1 on will be better and corn and soy prices are not very low e.g. corn is much better than $2 a bu it used to be but not as high as last year. Corn acres will be up from earlier expectations but not as high as last year but that still benefits MON

    • I don't diagree Soybeans may be higher than last year ...but MON makes money of soy as well Pioneer is yet to sell their GAt soy and so every bag that they sell of soy is usually RR and so a fee goes to MON. MOn is keeping prices high and so their sales vlume will not be as high but their profit marhin will be higher - results in higher profits even in 3rd quarter - farmers are now committing to seed sales they need to plant and if they are holding out they now will buy and what they plant will depend also on weather- if its dry - it favors corn if cold and wet soybeans. As teh copuntry sees more soy being planted corn grain futures will go up and so some will start to plant corn more. A dry year is bad on RoundUp sales and RoundUp will be down (MON has said it) higher overall due to Latin America but on its way down.


      What PE ration should a company with 20-30% profit increase have ? I would say as soon as this market starts turning and people see the profit that MON is still making I think they will start raising the price so the PE would rise a higher level and we could see close to $100 per sgare by end of april.

 
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