I don't see any reasons for MON to go up. Sure, when dollar dips, money flows to commodities, but there are many much better commodity plays then this one. World hunger? only if that brings MON money, unfortunately, MON will make much less money next year. Long term good? sure, you can hold and wait for it. Other than funds could make a market to unload their shares, I don't see any good individual investors should buy it. This one will underperform the market all the way to Jan. 2010, at least.
Value Line assigns a timeliness of 5 to Monsanto. 5 is the lowest any stock can get,but it is a good company with strong balance sheet. What else can we sell to China and India,surely not automobiles? May be drywalls?
I think the management team at MON yield too much to wall street. It is a good time for MON to cut its seed price to gain market shares and prepare for the future. In stead, they try to meet a number expected by Wall street,and increase their seed price. Now they found themself losing shares to competitors and start to lower their seed price, the whole process make them lose faith with farmers. MON lost faith with farmers roundup pricing, yet here again, they do it all over again with seeds. Fortunately, they have patent protection on their seeds, otherwise it could be really urgely. Plus the negative news today, there could be some internal selling pressure too. It at least will last for a while when some former employees unload their shares held in their 401K plan.