Since it was first rejected in 2011 there are now the potential for 3 times as many shares outstanding. There are the Preferred convertibles convertible to about 14 million shares and the 14 million $2 warrants that will most likely be exercised and converted hence the total of 47 million shares now versus under 15 million shares back then. However, they are in a much better financial condition now and will be able to raise another 26+ million on the warrants and now have an approved drug.
Basically look at the peak market cap at $9 per share or about 126 million then and company with little cash versus now the company will have over 40 million in cash on hand but 47 million shares at the end of the day. Thereby the market cap IMO should be equal to at least one years worth of peak sales estimated. Someone on this board said 300 million so using that number PATH should be at least $6 per share in the coming weeks based on that. I think it will get back to $9 because of the approval and cash on hand and potential for other products based on their patents. This stock would of been trading up to $25-$30 had it gotten approval over a year and a half ago hence didn't have to dilute so much and raise cash last year.
I find the peak sales estimate curious;
Revenue per patient per annum = $2400 ( company presentation)
Number of migraine patients in the US= 32 MILLION
Are you saying only 150K patients out of 32 million will use the patch? ( 300 mil revenue)
Further, most people are missing the biggest positive in this. NuPATH is a delivery technology company NOT a drug company. They just proved their transdermal delivery system. This will undoubtedly be of interest to any of the major pharmas.
Easy buy out at 500 Million or $13 pps. In 2013 IMHO.
IT is indeed ridiculous. Again - before the CRL in 2011 this stock was trading over $8 - as they awaited approval. They got a CRL not because of efficacy but for some manufacturing issues about evenly applying drug on patch. THEY HAVE ALL BEEN RESOLVED and now this is APPROVED and going to partner and launch this yr.
So I ask again - how can this long term not trade at least near that $8+ it traded while they were waiting for the first approval.
Manipulation can happen short term. People can be scared to sell early - not me I added 30,000 AH and will buy more tomorrow if under $4.50 at the regular open.