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NuPathe AŞ Message Board

  • A Yahoo! User Jan 21, 2013 3:14 AM Flag

    Predictions for Monday?

    I'm holding about 2500 shares... a large chunk of my portfolio, and am wondering if anyone had any predicitons based on some logical facts. Thanks

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • I'm holding 30K shares, about 1/5 of my portfolio. My monkey threw dart and landed on "hold".

    • sorry closed today, you should be okay buy on any dip, I think a buy out in the works @ least 8.50pps! but not much more than that!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • being a "large chunk" of your portfolio you should probably alter your investment strategy. Apart from that with an investment value of just $8,250 being already a "large chunk" of your portfolio you might just sit back and wait whatever might happen as this stock won't make you rich anytime soon.

      Actually I did quite a piece of work on this one here late Friday which you've already read but obviously don't like the conclusions (which were indeed "based on some logical facts") so you're now looking for some more positive predictions I guess.

      Once again, the stock has NO chance to move up as long as the giant supply overhang from the most recent financing isn't removed and even if these shares will have changed hands at some time in the future the company is going to dilute you once again by another 50-60% when they pull the recently filled shelf registration which would create a supply overhang up to four times bigger than this time.

      The only slight ray of hope for stockholders would be really great partnership deal within the next few weeks which contains a large upfront payment, a faster product launch and the release of the requirement to hire an own salesforce. This would avoid further dilution and allow great visibility for the go-to-market strategy.

      But if you have listened to the conference call you might very well know that this won't happen.

      So for the share price on Tuesday:

      As the stock has closed at day lows and went even lower in after hours on approval news it is quite easy to concede that there's considerable selling pressure still in the pipeline caused by the above mentioned double overhang of cheap shares and a looming financing up to 4x as big as the last desastrous one.

      So the stock might be bouncing around somewhat at the beginning based on some deranged retail shareholders desperately trying to average down their entry price but the stock should soon succumb again to the intense selling pressure stemming from the participants in the recent financing. As long as these investors still realize great profits and another giant financing maybe only weeks or just days away the stock should move down noticeably with the bottom to be set by the price of the new shares from the upcoming financing which I estimate to be at around $2.50.

      If they really are going to sell another forty million shares at this price the stock won't move up for years to come.

      • 1 Reply to hageneriksson
      • Wrong AGAIN with your analysis of your worthless "piece of work" from Friday. This massive dilution you keep babbling about can not happen as you describe with regards to timing and magnitude, so you can stop with your Doom and Gloom hyping.

        They can only sell shares equal to 1/3 of the current float in a twelve month period according to the December S-3 if the market cap is under $75 million (which it is). This would amount to only about 6 million shares or their equivalents, since this S-3 (December 21, 2012) is a mixed shelf offer.

        "As of December 18, 2012, the aggregate market value of our outstanding common stock held by non-affiliates, or public float, was approximately
        $48,706,510, based on 19,954,681 shares of outstanding common stock, of which approximately 5,877,655 shares were held by affiliates, and a price
        of $3.46 per share, which was the last reported sale price of our common stock on The NASDAQ Global Market on December 18, 2012. We have not
        offered any securities pursuant to General Instruction I.B.6 of Form S-3 during the prior 12 calendar month period that ends on and includes the date of
        this prospectus. Pursuant to General Instruction I.B.6 of Form S-3, in no event will we sell securities registered on this registration statement in a public
        primary offering with a value exceeding more than one-third of our public float in any 12-month period so long as our public float remains below
        $75.0 million."

        The warrants you keep babbling about are restricted from converting for 6 months (this is listed in the 10Q section 5(a), posted November 9, 2012):

        "In addition, as discussed in footnote 5d, in connection with the October 2012 Financing, the Company issued warrants to purchase 14,000,000
        shares of common stock at an exercise price of $2.00 per share. These warrants have a five year term and become exercisable six months after issuance."

        Time to cover for all shorties, available shares is very limited.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • No offense, but your an idiot who deserves to have ZERO shares. Stock Market doesn't trade on National Holidays

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I predict no one will buy or sell a single share. Call me Nostradamus.