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Diamond Foods, Inc. (DMND) Message Board

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  • cedarvalleycapital cedarvalleycapital Mar 23, 2012 7:46 PM Flag

    Been gone the past couple weeks...

    I think a share issuance would be disappointing.

    I would be surprised if all we get is a small PE deal.

    I don't think that Diamond will exist as its own entity by the end of June.

    Private equity is hungry for successful brands with huge growth (all greatly outperforming their respective markets).

    The true value of these brands are about double what they are being valued at right now, if you take away the overhanging issues that will be resolved.

    Barring any drastic new accounting issues (making this an Enron type fraud), the downside risk is baked in. It won't get much lower than it is, and I would be very surprised to ever see $22 again.

    Even a small short covering like we saw the other day, leads to massive spikes.

    These guys are pros, they don't care about the day to day stock price. Everybody is posturing and the vultures are feeding info to their friends at WSJ to constantly make Diamond look bad so they can get a better price.

    The gig will be up soon however. Diamond got a good deal on Kettle and Pop Secret and are organically growing Emerald faster than any retail nut company in the industry. Of course the cash value of the company is over $1B, and its worth more to Kellogs who has the distribution in place to blow up these brands.

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    • Hold strong. It will eventually work it's self out but most investors don't have the patience for it to work through. This isn't a good stock to hope for an immediate bump up. They most likely won't be selling the company in the near future. Every move and announcement has been about getting the company straightened out. I will wait it out and see. I am down over 30% but I still believe this investment will make me some money.

 
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