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Diamond Foods, Inc. (DMND) Message Board

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Jan 18, 2013 11:22 AM Flag

    1,697,823 shares

    1,697,823 shares were covered during the second half of December or 19% of the amount of shares that were short A/O 12/14 settlement date. That's a fair amount of covering. Impact on DMND's share price? Negligible!
    IMO DMND shares will flouder for some time.
    For over a year, I have read posts akin to "shorts are getting nervous" and I intrepret that as the writers' of such posts as being the ones who are nervous! Why would shorts be nervous? Flip the scenario around: someone buys a stock at 14 and it's now trading around 40; would this person be
    "nervous"?
    "Short squeeze is imminent" Well I've read this type of post for over a year as well. Meanwhile MANY shares have been covered and DMND's share price is only about 8% above its LOW!!!
    Most shorts have done very well with DMND and most longs have not. Tol think ten months ago, there were almost 13 million DMND shares short!!! (DMND closed at 23.46 2/15/12)

    One poster periodically writes that DMND should now be in a position to refinance its debt. Is that so?
    I'm sure OakTree is open to negotiations LOL. Did anyone bother to read my post the other day that included Rapid Ratings current Financial Health Rating on DMND? If not, it's 14 (scale 1 - 100 with 100 being the best).
    Same poster keeps freaking out about Driscoll. First of all, it's not like DMND could simply "draft" the best CEO with food industry experience. DMND was and IS DAMAGED and that in itself could either attract or distance potential CEOs. DMND is not a huge company and the board hired the best person within their reach. Rome was not built in a day and it will take QUARTERS for Driscoll et al to right the ship (if it's possible). It is a rather sad commentary that some posters are so freaking impatient. I know next to nothing about Driscoll, but I'm willing to give him a much more time than some to give fixing DMND a chance.
    Could DMND shares pop sooner than later? Sure, I'm just not expecting that to happen and besides "shorts are getting nervous" and "short squeeze is imminent", I haven't read a legitmate reason or reasons why DMND "should" pop in the near term. I'm not sure the market would receive an asset sale too well (unless it was the nut division).
    Eversince the walnut debacle (affects still being felt LOL) and before real quarterly results were announced, "investing" in DMND was purely a speculation. I'd say owning shares in DMND today should still be considered a speculation. Sometimes speculative "investments" yield results and sometimes they don't. Don't bet the farm on DMND.
    Cheers (yes, I'm long a speculative amount)

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    • Good post Woog. I have at least 90% of the posters on ignore. Why do these idiots feel compelled to post every 5 minutes "I think it will be $20 by end of week" or "shorts are really nervous" or the great "I just bought/shorted 50,000 shares" Yeah, like people with that kind of money hang out in here!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I disagree, if you look at the change in short interest through out the entirety of 2012, you will see that it has changed 1-2 million shares plus or minus in half month cycles 5 times. So that is not really an indicator of a predicated imminate "short squeeze", as for the case of dmnd finding its way to $11, not saying what can happen wont happen, but diamond saw four down grades after earnings those really didnt really bring the stock price down. As far technicals, 3 triangles, that tends be bearish, but $13 seems to be holding, think anything below that will go beyond where anyone who is gonna sell has sold point. I think now is a good time to buy, its a long term play, but they finally got the riffraft out of management, and as they slowly de-leverage and fix business relationships, the value will come back.

    • a true legitamate post. i appreciate your opinion. Most often than not board members are traders not investors. that is fine. so they will say things such as "short squeeze any day now" like they can predict the future. i myself trade from time to time and invest other times.

      DMND, technically speaking has shown an intermediate bottom. the risk and reward favors the longs at this point is all i have to say, from a technical analysis point of view.

      • 1 Reply to jessito11
      • I am long DMND in mid 13's. I feel this is a good place to enter with low risk to downside.

        Sales are very good but expenses are too high. I am not an accountant but feel they could do better somehow.

        I also bought DECK,CREE and LULU this month. The market should push these losers up a few points then I am out. I am swing trader and look for bottoms or lows in stocks.

        The charts show DMND due for a small rebound. I also feel that the charts might not work here since there has been such a big accounting scandal.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • good post.... I called for a drop to 13 and then took a long but now back into cash as need a better grasp on earnings .. For me the key is refinancing and they can do so in may.. and dont kid urself as Oaktree would have all to gain even with themselves refinancing into a convertible at 5% .. The stock would go up if they can get rid this 12% and maybe it could be done by selling the nuts business.. good post again.

 
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