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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • barfinecraig barfinecraig Dec 9, 2009 12:06 PM Flag

    She's Taking on Water Boys!

    another investment WTF! moment for me; loading up on NRF in the $5-8.00 range...oh the agony of it all.

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    • <<<I was not sure if there was an explanation as to why analysts think that next year would be "bad" for NRF>>>

      There sure is an explanation. It's called dead in the water. NRF is in slow liquidation mode, dead in the water with no new business, while management keeps sucking excessive compensation out of the company.

      The private reit, if they pull it off, and the Healthcare IPO, if it sells, are signs of a pulse, but more profitable new business has to be done to more than offset the blood being sucked out by management.

    • Not that an analyst would "ever" use projected earnings as an opportunity to buy at a better price, what would hurt the earnings at this point? Have we not come past the worst in this market?

      Without lowering the target, so they can be "half right" I find the earnings projections a bit empty.

    • Fair enough Dar. I was not sure if there was an explanation as to why analysts think that next year would be "bad" for NRF -- or whether this is a blanket view of all commercial REITs. I don't take analysts opinions at face value, and given the consensus is still $4.00 per share, it seems contradictory. If only I knew where I put my crystal ball...

    • <<<I see that next year's estimates don't look good.>>>

      Nobody has a reasonable clue about 2010 earnings and affo, including me, the pope and every pundit.

    • Why would anyone invest in these reits
      now..with all the distressed funds being
      started with no legacy issues all of the
      fresh money is going there not NRF or NCT..etc

    • Ditto. Bet Dar's not to pleased with his recent buy of the common.

      • 1 Reply to dugtherug
      • <<<Bet Dar's not to pleased with his recent buy of the common. >>>

        Would rather see it green or be out. Tried to get out even yesterday with so many shares on the ask. I don't think it is Hamo selling the last of the 10 million because he does not need the cash. He has 60 million of cash coming from the Wakefield sale on 12/15 by not paying off 33 million of related Wakefield debt. Otherwise, he would have 27 million of new cash instead of 60.

        Nope, this week has been a tute or two dumping, first offering over 100,000 shares on a 3.50 ask. When the huge volume on the ask continued yesterday at 2.29, then 2.48, then 2.47 I tried to get out at 2.48, then 2.47, but didn't as the tutes kept chasing a falling bid. IMO, the price ain't going up until the volume on the ask drops way down.

        In any event, the decline in value (not loss) is peanuts. I have taken much bigger hits, dollar and percentage-wise, flipping other companies. I'm willing to wait through earnings as I expect an upside surprise. We have a dime or so from the Wakefield sale and Hamo must have something to do with the excess cash or he's going to hear from Cooperman again, next time louder.

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