I'll start with facts: 9.94 (new 52-wk high) to 9.16 in two trading days, on:
No company news.
No industry news.
No significant change in interest rates.
China lays a fart (7.7% gdp growth....we should be so lucky) and the world panics.
NRF does not mine and sell gold.
NRF does not pay its bills with gold.
Nothing changed about nrf in these two trading days, except, imo, fear and greed.
Now my take: Fear and greed. There are somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 million new common shares with nice unrealized gains. Remember, 20 million were issued last May for 5.55, net of imbedded dividend.
Lotsa short term gains to protect (greed). Gotta beat the other guy out the door, price be dammed, as long as some big gain salvaged (fear).
Yesterday, no real reason to buy other than a bargain. Bid weak. Ask drops to weak bid when race to exit is on, as was yesterday.
Now 9.32, up 16 cents from bottom but still 64 cents off 9.94......all on nothing which affects nrf's core business.
The strong tea leaf signals which caused 9.94 have been forgotten in panic when nothing has changed for nrf's core. The gift horse is in front of you.
You are being entirely logical. However, one should not discount the power of the market tide to take solidly performing companies where they dont belong. NRF has been a rocket ship and I have gladly participated but I wouldnt be buying any more now.
mini flash crash this am, looks like a big trader unloaded about 500k shares in about 2-3 minutes at a market order. price slammed down to 8.76 before bouncing back up to 9.10. gotta love small caps. reminds me to leave a super low bid order at all times, you never know.
agree completely with dar. end of month earning should be fine. expect div raise by a penny. hopefully the entire world surrounding doesnt melt down and drag nrf with it...
I think the mini flash crash shortly after the open was the pros taking out stops around 9. I happened to be watching level 2 and the tape when it happened. When it traded at 9.01 it was under 8.80 in a couple of seconds as one stop after another triggered market sell orders. I tried to buy another flip lot at 8.80 but fingers were not fast enough as it was back to 8.96 by the time I clicked "submit".
I have the ability, time and mental toughness (sometimes called patience) to just wait out this nutso market.
Don't like to see deep red but I pay my bills with dividends. Market value of portfolio or a given stock is meaningless to me. I'm investing for my kids and grandkids, so my time horizon is infinite.
Agree, Dar. I reloaded 10,000 shares at $9.30 that I had sold a few days earlier for $9.71. I think this thing is going up again .... seems to be a darling of the pro's now: strong financials, growth stock, and good divy.