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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Apr 24, 2013 1:08 PM Flag

    Getting off the horse

    We have at least one poster here who knows about horses. I have a question.

    How does one get off a galloping horse without getting hurt?

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    • One doesn't.

    • Having been raised on a cattle ranch, I have to ask, why would you want to get off?
      Just stay with him. He will tire out quickly.

    • Been there and done that- sprained ankle was all I got. You gotta relax and roll the best you can. And make sure you're young. I just told my brother what I learned from you, Dar. When the lemmings jump, buy. Up to 148,000 shares now because of the dips. Ain't this fun?

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I have 2 horses. I say whoa you bast--ds. If that doesn't work I steer the horse under a tree and grab a branch. Then also you can pray.

      • 1 Reply to mtwolfguy
      • I hope you take your feet out of the stirrups just before you grab the branch.

        Another reason I'm so sure the May dividend will be 19 cents is this penny per quarter increase has Hamo on a galloping horse. The market now expects it. No increase without advance warning will cause a substantial drop in price. Hamo can't get off the horse without bringing it to a some carefully worded statement at a CC that the board is considering a change in the chronology of changing dividends, like back to annual. Remember when we got advance notice of the change in the announcement date?

        I have no reason to believe Hamo wants to get off the horse. To the contrary, I believe he wants to publicly thump his chest in August over doubling the dividend in two years. I expect a penny per quarter to continue until an early warning is issued because:
        Projected core cash to common (92 cents at midpoint in Feb est) supports 78 cents for calendar 2013 (18+19+20+21).

        The rate at which Hamo is growing core cash to common appears (although it is very early) to support 94 cents for 2014 (22+23+24+25). 94 cents is a 20.5% increase over 78 cents.....which should more than satisfy stockholders. 94 cents at an 85% payout ratio calls for core cash to common of 1.11. 80% calls for 1.18.

        So, unless something bad blows up, I expect a penny per quarter increase until Hamo gives advance warning of a change. It's a galloping horse he can't get off without getting hurt (as nrf's biggest individual shareholder).

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