I expect a secondary offering tonight or tomorrow. I suspect hamo has accretive pipeline and now covers the offering price with an immediate dividend as long as trade date is Tues or Wed. Unfortunately, this gives the shorts a chance to buy big blocks without driving up the price before they have to pay the dividend. Just like last Q.
So I sold 1 of 3 flip lots. Had a limit order on another lot but did not get reached. I hope to buy the offering at a discount to today so I still get the divi. If I'm wrong I still had a great flip.
Bought'em back, so I'll only make a grand on my error instead of 2 to 3 grand. Dividend is mine and I'll wait for dumbell lemmings like monkey to figure it out. It won't be too long for mid 10s since hamo starts spoonfeeding next Monday.
Totally wrong on this one. Oh well. over 9% after subtracting dividend in 3 weeks is still a nice flip.
Should be interesting trading today and tomorrow. Today, short covering. Tomorrow we see if we get an ex-divi dump.
In any event, I'll take the dividend on the 2 remaining flip lots. I still expect mid-10s as the word gets spoonfed that nrf's cash flow has shifted toward annuity type cash flow......59% of 2013 cad expected from equity reit investments and management fees, not to mention the built-in gains on cdo debt bought at deep discount....60 million expected in 2013.
Just be patient with your core position. It takes a while for a slow market to catch up to the new, growing, more conservative nrf.
dar - just a note of thanks for your work here and on the NBN and SUI boards. I've been a very long term owner of NRF (got some shares at 1.28) but I followed you into the NBN trade at about 8 and the SUI trade at about 40 and am very happy I did.
BTW, I'm thinking that the recent acquisition of the mobile home assets by NRF gives it a chance to emulate SUI in generating cash from these assets.
I took a flip on NBN...made a fast 10% or so. Position, company and volume too small for me. Nevertheless, very low 8s was a great price. I still think it's a takeover but don't want to wait for it. SUI is an annuity. NRF paid a lot more per lot than sui has, but they borrow cheaper. Renting house lots is about as steady as they come. NRF has 10 years fixed of 4.02% loans while the going in cap rate is slightly under 7%. NRF has 8 years (before starting refinancing) to raise the noi (I expect between 3 and 4% per year) while the loan rate stays the same. My kind of deal....low risk with decent return on leveraged equity.
I second your thanks. I got SUI at approx. 35$. And northstar pr. A at an average of 12.50 after Dar touted it at $7.50. Now, with 148,000 shares of common and 11,800 of preferred, I'm a happy camper. I'd really like to know, though, how many of the pad sites include the Manu. home. Look at LSE. Poised to do well and making acquisitions.
Wrong so far, but they still have tonight to announce with a trade date Wed, which gives the subscriber the dividend.
The good news is without an offering shorts don't have massive blocks of stock they can all buy at the same time and price to cover before the ex date.....at least not for now. IMO, no offering tonight means Hamo has enough liquid equity for his immediate pipeline. Plus, that allows more to understand the shift in the types of nrf's cash flow and drive the yield down by bidding the price up.
BTW...I looked at call options....the 10s thru Sep. Open interest totals a little less than 17,000 contracts. If all are held by shorts, that covers only about 1.7 million shares, hardly a dent in over 24 million short shares. No offering = more suffering for shorts.