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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • newguy7001 newguy7001 Jul 11, 2013 11:03 AM Flag

    Latest Short Interest At 31.7m!

    Hard to understand what shorty is doing?

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    • That's great.....another 4.66 million shares to be bought when the pain gets really bad.

      Settlement date of this read is 6/28 which means a trade date of 6/25 when it closed at 8.68. It appears that none of this new group are in the money as of now. I expect the next ex date will be around 8/9 when shortie gets hit with a 20 cent pay in lieu.

      We have probably shaken out most of the weak hands thru about 10.11 (prior high of 10.30 ex prior div). Barring bad company news or another Bernanke fart, we should see a gradual creep up to earnings and the dividend announcement as long as recent flippers are patient, then a little pop on 20 cents. Then it depends on cad (while lemmings will react to affo) and the CC. I've seen nothing which indicates that growth of cad is slowing.

      When the annualized dividend is 80 cents, 8% gives you 10.00 on the price, 7.5% gives you 10.67 (my expectation) and 7% gives you 11.43. Going the other way, 8.5% = 9.41. I see much more upside as the market appreciates the change in nrf's cash flow, than downside. I suggest no sale of flippers until after the CC.

      • 1 Reply to dar200
      • Slow Friday and I had my dinner trade (MSFT) before 10:00am so I decided to have a look-see on how our net new 4.66 million shorts between 6/12 and 6/25 (trade dates) might be doing.

        There were 10 trading days for this net new 4.66 million to get established. Only 4 of those had daily highs over 9:00. We also had very high volume on rising price on 6/13 (12.1 million shares and 8.96 for hod) and 6/14 (13.2 million with 9.23 for hod). The absolute best any short during this period could have done is 9.29 (the highest price in the 10 trading day period). Also, the lod during the same period was 8.50 or lower on 5 of the 10 days.

        The stock closed at 8.45 on 6/11, the trade date for the 6/14 settlement date reading.
        Closed at 8.32 on 6/12
        Closed at 8.85 on 6/13 on 12.1 million volume (8.96 for hod)
        Closed at 9.16 on 6/14 on 13.2 million volume (9.23 for hod)

        My guess is almost all of the 4.66 million net new short were established on 6/13 and 6/14.
        I'll be extra generous and assume all of these new shorts sold at 9.10 (which was impossible on 6/13).

        Soooo, at 9.75, this new group is underwater by at least 65 cents, which is 7.14% of 9.10.

        It appears they had to reach back into the borrow drawer today to beat back from 9.82, lest the price get away from them with a dividend increase pop soon to come. After today, only 8 trade days to the dividend announcement if I am right about 7/31 after close. Shorts need nrf bad news, another Bernanke rate fart or a general market meltdown. While one never says never, I think the shorts are in big trouble. If I'm right and nothing bad happens, this is going to be fun to watch.

 
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