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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Jul 15, 2013 12:38 PM Flag

    Slightly green at close

    I don't usually predict a close, mostly because I don't have a strong enough feeling, and also because a given close is meaningless unless a trade is imminent.

    Nevertheless, I have noticed a pattern over the past few days. Green at the opening and shortly thereafter, then weakness but not a slam, then a slow but steady buy into the close....all on less than normal volume.
    No big hitter in either direction has been in a hurry, but the buy bias is there late in the trading day pushing the close slightly green. Could be shorts wanting to cover before time runs out on ex dividend. Plenty of days to go but reduced by one each day.

    We'll see if we get the same today. Not enough to try a flip, imo. Just a curiosity factor as we wait for 20 cent announcement, which will cause a small pop.

    Next is 2013 cad. First est was 87-97 with 92 midpoint. Second was 91-99 with 95 midpoint......lower was up 4 and upper up 2, narrowing the spread from 10 to 8. Next cad est will depend on timing of closings on latest private equity deal imo. Early closings will add 7 or so while delayed closings will add 4 to 5. By the release of the next presentation 7 months will be under the belt, so the spread should narrow to 6. I expect the midpoint will not be less than a buck unless the latest PE deal is not closing on schedule.

    I expect mid 10s by the day after the CC. Ain't sellin my flippers.

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    • That's the end of this theory.
      At 3:04 the bid-ask was 59-60 with 1,077 million volume
      At close it was 59-60 with volume of 1.525 million.

      Last hour volume of 448k = 29.3% of whole day. Lotsa trades on the bid as with yesterday, but plenty of volume on the bid.

      I predict dividends better than I predict trading trends.

    • Hi Dar,

      I am a fan of your work and NRF. Having said that, don't you think that we are almost guaranteed a secondary at around the time the declare the next dividend. That is why the shorts are buzzing around in my opinion. The last secondary that they did was over $1 less than the current price and done earlier this year.

      I would predict the price hangs around here and shoots up to around $10 when the announce the dividend and then dips down to around 9.5 after they announce the secondary. So I sold my "trading" shares today but still have an overweight position.

      • 1 Reply to stlbeerman196810
      • A 3.5% discount for a secondary ain't gunna bail out many shorts. That said, whether we get another capital raise depends on the possible deals in front of Hamo. Hamo got 70 million from the liquidation of Northstar 2 and 290 million of 30-year fixed rate debt at 5.55%.....enough to do nrf's share of the latest private equity deal other than the final payment in 4 years.

        If Hamo gets the right yield on leveraged equity which is clearly accretive, he'll issue equity. Fine with me....Hamo makes 15% and pays new common 8% or new preferred 9%....either way there is money left over for me. The dilution freaks just don't understand this. That's ok, because I make money on their lemming kneejerks.

        Buy an issuance kneejerk because Hamo will not do one unless it is accretive to HIS common holdings. Trust me. Hamo's greed is second only to his smarts. He will not dilute himself.

    • Close, but no cigar.

      At 3:01 bid was 66 and ask was 67 with volume of 1.37 million.
      At the close bid was 69 vs ask of 70 with 1.85 million.

      Last hour = 480,000 shares or almost 26% of day's volume.

      Yeah, buyers were there but there were plenty of sellers. Last 5 minutes tape showed almost all trades on the bid or half cent over and very few on the ask.

      Nevertheless, the pattern continued albeit weaker than I perceived over the past few days.

      Doesn't really matter. We're one day closer to ex-div and most shorts are seriously underwater.

12.43-0.34(-2.66%)Oct 6 4:05 PMEDT