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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • newguy7001 newguy7001 Jul 22, 2013 3:53 PM Flag

    Shorts Remain Committed, at least In Todays Action

    I imagine they are looking at writing something in the neighborhood of an $8m check in a week or two....Ouch! I know it isn't that much money, but, it has to hurt ....at least their pride. It has to be particularly painful on top of the $50m+ in value loss suffered off the most recent lows! Way, way, back, I learned that when your wrong cut your losses sooner rather than later. The market doesn't always do what you think it should do nor what you want it to do.

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    • Sure looked like it not too long after the open to smack down the opening spike to 9.97. It worked for a while but I think it's like shoveling sand against an incoming tide.

      7 trading days left before the dividend announcement if I am correct about 7/31 after close. A 4 cent increase in the annualized dividend capitalized at an 8% "demanded" yield = a 50 cent increase in price if. all other market forces are neutral which they never are. 4 cents/ 7.5% = 53.33 cents more. Hamo thinks the yield should be closer to 6% to be comparable to other reits in different areas on a blended basis. To get there they gotta shed the mreit image which will take time to sink in to a slow market.

      Without some nrf blowup or market meltdown, I smell mid 10s ex div in August. Ain't sellin my flippers.

      BTW.....all should mentally adjust the price by the impending dividend. Theoretical accretion to date is in the neighborhood of 17.5 cents. My feeble mind can't do that subtraction in a flash any more, so I'm subtracting 20 cents. 9.90 is 9.70 for the stock and 20 cents for the dividend soon to come. Buyers are buying a dividend and sellers are walking away from one (actually selling it to a buyer). Don't let that extra 20 cents, which is more than 2% of the price, lull you into selling flippers. Don't even dream about selling your core position as long as Hamo keeps on the growth roll. All but shorts will like the 2Q cad report.

 
NRF
18.97+0.02(+0.11%)Apr 24 4:05 PMEDT