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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Sep 18, 2013 5:01 PM Flag

    Thanks, Uncle Ben

    Too bad today's rise wasn't on fundamentals. Nevertheless, I'm happy to take any price increase for any reason. It's especially pleasing to watch shorts get stopped out which happened several times today, especially the first cross of 9.50 which quickly became 9.58 before shorts stopped covering and sellers took over.

    It's also nice to finally be over the last offering price of 9.40 (net of the 20 cents built into the official price). Yeah, interest rates affect the demanded yield, as they should. But rising rates have a miniscule effect on cad.
    IMO, nrf has to do a better job of pounding this fact into the investment community. Otherwise, the next Bernanke fart which causes a rate spike will tank nrf's price again.

    I doubt today has broken the will of the shorts to keep the pressure on, despite some panic covering today. IMO, it's going to take good, accretive news about what Hamo is doing with 376 million of new offering cash. Something has to convince the shorts that the recent growth is real and is likely to continue, limited only by liquid equity capacity which can be increased again and again as long as it's accretive. The settlement date of the last offering was 8/9, now well over a month ago with no news of use of proceeds. Lousy communication, imo.

    So, even though I am displeased with nrf's communications and its failure to shed its mreit image, I'm not even thinking about selling flippers, never mind the core, because I'm convinced the dividend will keep on increasing by at least a penny per quarter through 2014. I pay my bills with dividends so I'm willing to wait as long as Hamo keeps the growth ball rolling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • ".... because I'm convinced the dividend will keep on increasing by at least a penny per quarter through 2014."

      Agree, but would you let us know the second Dr. B farts? Thanks.

    • Low interest rates stimulate loan demand, which is positive for NRF fundamentals. I also think the damage to shorts is long term. Bernanke told them that the QE won't begin in earnest until mid 2014 and maybe not until 2015. So they're going to be sitting on dead money another year and a half and paying 10% distributions to us. The economy is just active enough to keep stocks moving up, while not active enough to effect an increase in interest rates.

      It's not a market I'd want to be short of anything in. In fact quite the opposite --- it's the kind of market that will scald the living daylights out of shorts. Today was the "megaday" I had expected. It will be the first of many. The DOW is headed to 20K by the end of next year.

    • Rice and rabbit for supper

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