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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Sep 26, 2013 10:04 AM Flag

    Short smackdown #1 today

    A familiar chart pattern on a low volume first half hour. Price rises at a decent pace, then SMACK, the shorts unload on a thin bid. Don't know when they will give up or run out of ammo. Don't really care as long as cad and dividend keep growing.

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    • Stocks are a more unstable asset than anything else I know of because the last transaction revalues the entire market cap. If the last price is up or down a penny, then it is assumed that EVERY share that has ever been bought or sold is worth that same price. This is a different mindset than how businesses value their physical inventories.

      Shorts and longs feed off this game of trying to make investors believe that their position is worth whatever the last trade was. On paper, your position IS worth # shares x last selling price. But that's only for this particular instant in time. The true value of the market cap doesn't change on the basis of the last stock trade, and the buy/sell prices that are imbedded in all those millions of other trades will tend to pull the stock price back into line with true value, regardless of the rumor mill and manipulations by longs and shorts.

      I know that's an arcane way to look at it, and short-term traders don't consider that viewpoint at all. But if you're a long-term investors realize that each one of those tens of millions of shares that have been purchased in past transactions has a value expectation that will support the stock and tend to pull it upward so long as earnings and distributions increase. The shorts (and longs for that matter) are trying to manipulate prices of a few hundred thousand shares. The "gravitational pull" of all those hundreds of millions of shares bought for the long term will thwart them so long as expectations continue to be met.

      The shorts just learned a terrible lesson in that regard with TSLA and have another beating coming here. Not picking on shorts by the way. Longs are often just as bad with their "pump and dump" schemes.

    • Tuesday and Wednesday short trading volumes were 537k and 444k., res. Trending down from Friday and Monday numbers, but, still a lot of activity percentage wise. They aren't done, yet!

18.14-0.17(-0.93%)12:53 PMEDT