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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Oct 7, 2013 10:17 AM Flag

    Healthcare supplement 9

    As of October 2, 2013, we received and accepted subscriptions in our offering for 2.0 million shares, or $20.2 million, including 0.2 million shares, or $2.0 million, sold to NorthStar Realty Finance Corp., our sponsor.

    Nice, in the 12 days since 9/20 (sup 8), another 4.1 million or an average of 341.667k per day.

    Sup 7 = 275.8 per day
    Sup 8 = 300.0
    Sup 9 = 341.7

    At 341 per day, it takes 287 days to collect 980 million. At this rate Healthcare will be sold out by next summer which means in a little over a year captive reit annualized management fees will double. This is without Income 2 which is now collecting public money.

    Incremental expenses to manage these nontraded reits are minimal since nrf has the staff to evaluate and manage deals for itself. Allowing these nontraded reits to participate in the same deals costs next to nothing.

    Lets assume that 30 million of management fees costs an incremental 5 million, putting 25 million to the bottom line. Now there about 250 million common shares/units outstanding. So, in less than another year Healthcare produces another 10 cents per share.

    Ride this horse as long as Hamo keeps the growth ball rolling like it is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Oh, damn. I just flunked decimal points. 980,000,000 divided by 341,000 = 2,874 days, which is 7.87 years.
      Banging my head on the desk. We wait for snowball to grow.

    • Good info as usual. NRF will be offering still another reit in ist half, 2014. I am guessing in the housing field.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to mtwolfguy
      • Well, the supplement info is correct as well as the eps effect of 25 million on 250 million. I expect the second billion to be in hand by the end of 2014. So, instead of a little over a year, it's 1.5 years for management fees to double (if I'm correct about collection timing). Not a big deal.

        The big deal is how profitable the nontraded reit fees are......very little incremental cost and next to no equity tied up in them. Plus the capital lets nrf do bigger deals when the nontraded reits participate.

        We are about to hear what Hamo did with 368 million from the August common offering. If he makes 14%, that's 51.52 million annualized which is 20 cents per share on 250 million shares. Add to this the partial year increment from 1H investments into 2014 and we're looking at 1.40 to 1.60 cad for 2014 vs maybe 1.10 for 2013. 1.40/1.10 = 27% increase. Lotsa companies would like to report a 27% y/y increase in eps. Continuing ppq dividend increase = 94 cents for 2014 which is 67% of 1.40.

        The handwriting is on the wall. Get on the horse before the handwriting is history.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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