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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • newguy7001 newguy7001 Oct 18, 2013 10:01 AM Flag

    Early Friday Short Action Having Limited Success!

    Charts are pointing up as technicals on NRF have all turned positive short to intermediate term! $9.90's near term minimum!

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    • Looks like a short slam just after the open which was delayed about 4 minutes by an imbalance on the buy side. That shook the tree so it worked. Proof of the pudding will be in the last hour, particularly the last 15 minutes. Smart buyers will let sellers kill themselves until the selling into a falling bid stops. Then the price creeps up as buyers find sellers scarce.

      Not enough of a drop for me to flip even though I expect a creep up to the dividend announcement. Gimme a bigger drop and I'll be buying for a flip as I give 99% for 21 cents at the least and 90% the cad estimate midpoint will be a few cents higher than 1.06.Couppla weeks ain't long to wait.

      That was a high short percentage yesterday, fighting an incoming tide. Don't know when they will give up but do know the rear view mirror is going to look better on 11/1. By latter part of Feb they'll have a good idea on the ramp rate on the two nontraded reits. First est on 2014 cad should be fun. We'll know more on 11/1, but I see no signals whatsoever that nrf is not firing on all 8 cylinders. It's just gut feel from extrapolation, but I'm smelling 1.40 to 1.60 for 2014. At a 75% payout ratio, we only need 1.25 to support continuing a penny per quarter which totals 94 cents in calendar 2014 vs 78 cents this year. As long as Hamo keeps the growth ball rolling, just sit back and be patient.

    • Agree, but shorts see this as another opportunity to hammer the nail. Dangerous play before another dividend increase. GLTA.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to achilles197474
      • One NRF breaks $10 it'll go to $12 in no time. It will be horiffic torture for shorts.

        I have a relative who works for law enforcement on the Tex/Mex border. He says that one of the ways the Mexican drug cartels torture people they don't like is to "tie a hungry wolf rat to your belly and watch you squirm!" Imagine the shorts watching the price tick up every day and you'll have some idea of how that feels.

13.35+0.23(+1.75%)May 27 4:02 PMEDT