I think it is more than shorts the past few days. Might be a tute dumping before 10/31 with no similar size on the buy side. The pressure on the bid has been pretty much constant since last Thursday's close. NRF performing poorly today relative to other reits. Just gotta wait it out.
Dividend increase should be widely anticipated by now. If not, then market is more stupid than even I give it credit for. On a pure yield basis, if 80 / 9.50 =8.42%, then 84 should equal 9.976 for the same yield.
Likewise, if nrf sells at 9.50 on estimated cad of 1.06 (8.962 times with 5 months to go ), then the same ratio on 1.10 cad should price at 9.858 + 2.25% (for less discount factor at .75% per month) = 10.07. The discount factor is for time and risk on the length of the forward look. All rational thinkers should agree a full year's estimate is likely to be more accurate with two months to go vs 5 months to go.
This looks to me like a "show me" market on nrf.....don't pay for anticipated future results until they are historical fact. That takes reasoned inference (aka faith). Those who bought nrf at 17 when the dividend was 36 cents are likely to still have a bad taste in the mouth. Faith and bad taste don't coexist in the same person.
Those who do believe the reasonable forward inference just have to wait for them to become fact. If they are right, they will make a helluva lot more money than the show me crowd. I'm content to wait.
I traded NRF a few years ago before the economic crisis hit and held some for almost a year, but ditched it as the economic crisis was starting. As a commercial mortgage REIT, I didn't want to hold it.
Having rebought into NRF about a year ago, with the new business model mainly as an equity REIT, I'm inclined to hold it long-term now, as the dividend is much more secure.
I was about to make that exact same post when DAR beat me to the punch. The volume seems to me to be too anemic to have anything to do with a concerted short attack at the moment. The shorts staked out their positions two or three months ago and are now, like Dar says, in "wait and see" mode. So are the longs for that matter.