agnc murdered today on bad numbers and cutting guidance (and likely soon to slash divs- again).
personally would think that other reits tanking would make a good quarter with raised guidance from nrf make nrf seem like superstars...best of breed...that should be bought. but alas, market drags all down by association and doesnt look at actual facts. these mreits have been cutting divs and lowering numbers steadily for the last 1-2 years. nrf has been raising guidance and increasing div for the last 1-2 years. why this doesnt equate, never seems to amaze me.
i agree with all you guys, but just think its beyond frustrating.
management has done a great job with the business and results, very happy there. but at some point management needs to aggressively take a somewhat new direction with stock management in mind to break the cycle. their interests are aligned with ours- its time to prove it, the next year will be a very challenging environment with the economy changing/interest rates changing and reit names are going to be very much volatile and in flux. management needs to be out front and leading us through this, and its becoming clear to me at least that just continuing the business/growth success isnt going to be enough to satisfy the market. theyve made hints in the past, but never really followed through or achieved a great deal on this front. very much want to hear the commentary on the coming CC. but i fear i will be disappointed.
Stink of agnc and arr sticking to other reits, especially those with mortgage reit attributed to them, even if they do not do agencies, like nrf. AGNC and ARR results may give a strong hint about NLY, but they mean absolutely nothing to NRF results.
An irrational decrease in a given stock's price is OK with me. I just buy to flip or hold, depending on the case.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve was questioning banks about their exposure to mortgage REITs through short-term funding markets. Their concern was that it posed a risk. In addition, mREITs, such as ARR and IVR came out with disappointing earnings reports after the market closed. This has driven down REITs today, mainly mREITs. Since NRF is perceived to still be a MREIT by the masses and even some analysts even though its business model suggests that it shouldn't be, the stock price of NRF has been lumped in with the mREITs.
As to why investors don't put more of a premium on NRF because of its increasing dividend and rising distributable income, your guess is as good as mine, although the continuing perception of NRF as an mREIT could be the case.
MM's are taking the opportunity to 'shake' the tree. My average yield on my shares based on average purchased price at the current dividend is in the mid teens. I am not going anywhere except to add on any significant weakness!