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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Oct 30, 2013 4:53 PM Flag

    Yield musings

    So, before today's press release, the last announced dividend of 20 cents when annualized = 80 cents.
    NRF closed today at 9.33. So, .80/9.33 = 8.5745% yield.

    Now, the last announced dividend is 21 which annualizes to 84. Demanding exactly the same yield, .84 / 8.5745% = 9.796 price. Some rationality in this nutso market will give kenpally his 9.77 flip on today's 9.27 buy
    tomorrow at the open. But the aftermarket ask is now 9.53.

    The above gives no premium to the fact that the dividend has been increased 9 quarters in a row. It also gives no premium to the fact that 78 cents paid in 2013 is only 73.4% of the August midpoint estimate of 1.06 2013 cad.

    It also gives no consideration to the fact that about 60% of 2013 cad will come from equity reit assets and annuity management fees. Any 8th grader with some effort in extrapolation can surmise this percentage will be about 70% (or higher given recent new investment ratios) for 2014.

    When the market is this stupid, I'll just wait until it gets pounded into its collective head.

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NRF
17.36-0.31(-1.75%)Dec 19 4:01 PMEST

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