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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Mar 18, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    Nice consolidation over 16.00

    Last 3 days.....24 million shares traded with a low of 16.02 and a high of 16.37.....about a 2% spread.

    Result is consolidation and basing with 16 as a floor.

    Spike to 16.37 yesterday, imo, was a knee-jerk buy on healthcare properties contract announcement and was too brief to have cleared out sellers over 16.30. I think 16.05 to 16.20 has been well worked. Over 16.25, imo, is still new ground to find new sellers because spike beyond that was needle thin.

    Silence on offering is deafening. Methinks Hamo is waiting until two weeks before healthcare properties closing, whenever that may be.

    Just some thoughts on recent trading and events. All is well in NRF land as far as I am concerned. Very, very long and content to wait.

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    • From Tuesday post:

      "Spike to 16.37 yesterday, imo, was a knee-jerk buy on healthcare properties contract announcement and was too brief to have cleared out sellers over 16.30. I think 16.05 to 16.20 has been well worked. Over 16.25, imo, is still new ground to find new sellers because spike beyond that was needle thin."

      Open at 16.34 was started in premarket. Did not take but a couple of minutes for newfound sellers over 30 (16 omitted) to push back down to 25 or so where buyers came back in. Getting good consolidation now between 25 and 30. Next cross over 30 may not be beaten back as fast as the prior two. If trading goes the way I think it is trending (and no macro backlash), I suspect I'll soon be thinking of 16.25 as the floor.

      IMO, the disciplined and measured march to 17 has begun. Each new 52-week high will find new sellers.....nobody knows how many shares at each increment upward, buy buyers so far have been buying the dips and more, causing a steady creep upward.

      Short ratio has been tepid except on Yellen day. I suspect next short interest report will show wholesale surrender.

      Just sitting back and enjoying the show.

      • 3 Replies to dar200
      • Get on a major league sports team!

      • Great week, closing at a 7-yr high. Fidelity reporting 16.31 close. Yahoo reporting 16.30 close with 16.31 immediate after hours. Makes no difference. Bid-ask was 24-25 at 3:50....then those willing to pay 30 stepped up.

        Spent a decent amount of time trading 30 to 33, then drooling sellers chased bid back to 24 before selling stopped....or buying took over below 25. I think market is clearing out sellers between 30 and 35. Next stop is 40, imo, but I never know (or have a feel) for how many new shares will shake loose at a given new 52-week (actually 7-yr) high.

        Other than the Yellen knee-jerk the whole week was consolidating and basing at over 16 with an upward bias. Now I feel that 16.25 is the floor and free trading will take place between 25 and 39 while the very high 30s may get some selling pushback.

        Without doubt, the trading momo is up following the trend of organic growth. Just sit back and enjoy the ride with your core position.

      • Thanks dar, I will miss massive short squeeze that happens every time NRF announces good news lol. If you dont mind, do you have any long top picks for stock that has same quality as NRF? I just bought some NCT, now its down 2% on me, thinking of doubling down if it goes lower.

    • Nice comeback today finishing near the high.

      Other than that brief detour to Yellenville, I think my basing and consolidation theory is intact. Yeah, a macro market kneejerk put a kink in my "16.00 is the floor" belief, but today solidifies it. Had today closed at 16.01 I'd have doubts. But the strong afternoon climb tells me the move to 17 is still on track.

 
NRF
18.91-0.11(-0.58%)Jan 30 4:06 PMEST

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